Unauthorized edit to Ukraine frontline map triggers massive betting payout

The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank, said the edit occurred overnight into Nov. 16 and was removed before the next day's updates began. It did not affect official assessments, the institute said in its Nov. 17 report.

Polymarket relies on ISW's map to settle bets on territorial changes in the ongoing war. A market on whether Russia would capture a specific intersection in Myrnohrad by mid-November — with more than $1.3 million in trading volume — resolved "yes" based on the temporary edit, paying out to bettors who reportedly earned up to 33,000% returns despite no confirmed Russian advance.

Subsequent reports indicated ISW removed a geospatial researcher from its website and fired the staffer believed responsible.

ISW strongly objected to its maps being used for gambling, stating it does not consent to such purposes and is committed to objective assessments for policymakers, journalists, and humanitarian groups.

Polymarket did not respond to requests for comment on the incident.