According to officials, the analysis is being conducted at the request of senior aides in the administration of Donald Trump. Its aim is to assess the consequences of a potential U.S. exit from the conflict, which some officials and advisers believe could lead to significant Republican losses in this year’s midterm elections.
The agency said no decision has been made and Trump could easily resume military operations. However, rapid de-escalation could ease political pressure on the U.S. president, even if it leaves behind a strengthened Iran that could eventually revive its nuclear and missile programs and threaten U.S. allies in the region.
It remains unclear when the intelligence community will complete its assessment, though it has previously analyzed how Iranian leaders might respond to a U.S. declaration of victory, Reuters reported.
If Trump declares victory while maintaining a significant military presence, Iran would likely view it as a negotiating tactic that would not necessarily end the war, a source said.
White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said the United States is still in talks with Iran and “will not rush into a bad deal.”
Three people familiar with recent White House discussions said Trump is acutely aware of the political cost he and his party are paying.
Another person familiar with internal dynamics in the administration said a range of military options remains under consideration, including renewed airstrikes on Iran’s military and political leadership.
However, one U.S. official and another person familiar with the discussions said the most ambitious options, such as a ground invasion of Iran, appear less likely than they did several weeks ago.
An unnamed White House official described internal pressure on the president to end the war as “enormous,” the agency said.
On April 21, Trump said he had extended a ceasefire with Iran at Pakistan’s request until Tehran presents its proposal for a peace settlement.
Iranian state media later reported that Tehran does not recognize the U.S.-announced extension of the ceasefire and will act in accordance with its own interests.
On April 22, Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said a truce with the United States would “make sense” only if a “naval blockade” ends and Israel halts “hostile actions.”
On April 25, Trump canceled a planned trip by U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff and his son-in-law Jared Kushner to Pakistan for talks with Iran, saying it made little sense for the delegation to travel 18 hours when the United States “holds all the cards” in the conflict.
On April 27, The New York Times reported, citing its sources, that Trump told advisers he was dissatisfied with Iran’s latest proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the war.