U.S. and Israel target Iran’s leadership, security forces in bid to topple regime — ISW

The assessment indicates Washington and Israel are pursuing parallel objectives: dismantling Iran’s senior command structure while degrading the institutions that enforce regime control at home.

Strikes on security organs

Following the killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, joint U.S.-Israeli forces appear to have shifted focus to the regime’s internal security organs. Those strikes align with the stated U.S. and Israeli objective of overthrowing the Iranian regime, ISW said.

Targets struck in the first days included:

• The headquarters of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Ground Forces in Tehran — units responsible for security in the capital region and for suppressing domestic dissent.
• The headquarters of Iran’s Law Enforcement Command, described by ISW analysts as the “regime’s first line of defense against protests.” The intelligence chief of those forces was killed on Feb. 28.
• The Islamic Revolutionary Court in Tehran.
• The headquarters of Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting, the state media corporation used to disseminate regime propaganda. The facility was also struck in the summer of 2025.
• Additional facilities tied to the internal security apparatus that helped suppress protests in December 2025 — January 2026, including Basij militia bases in Kermanshah province and Tehran.

Striking these institutions could reduce the ability and readiness of Iranian security forces to contain potential unrest, ISW said. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced on March 1 that Israel would strike “thousands” of targets in the coming days and urged Iranians to “free themselves from the chains of tyranny.”

U.S. and Israeli forces are also continuing a campaign aimed at decapitating Iran’s senior leadership. That effort appears designed to limit Iran’s ability to retaliate and disrupt its command and control chains, creating conditions for regime change through the removal of top officials, ISW said.

Among the most prominent figures killed in the first days was Maj. Gen. Abdolrahim Mousavi, chief of staff of Iran’s armed forces. Mousavi had replaced Mohammad Bagheri after Israel killed Bagheri in June 2025.

A central element of the campaign has been U.S. and Israeli air superiority. ISW noted that the Israel Defense Forces outlined a three-phase plan to secure air dominance over areas of western and central Iran to enable joint forces to achieve their objectives. The phases include:

• Destroying Iranian air defense systems and missile launchers in western Iran.
• Achieving air superiority over western Iran and “opening the path to Tehran.”
• Achieving air superiority over Tehran.

The IDF employed a similar approach during the June 2025 Israeli-Iranian war, ISW said. That strategy allowed Israel to secure air superiority over much of Iran and subsequently strike facilities linked to Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs.

U.S. and Israeli forces continue targeting Iranian missile launchers to curb Tehran’s retaliatory capacity. On March 1, the IDF struck a missile base north of Qom where Iran likely stores and launches Ghadr 1-H medium-range ballistic missiles, which have a range of 1,950 kilometers.

On Feb. 28, joint forces struck a ballistic missile launch site at the Khomeini missile base in Markazi province. The IDF also targeted IRGC facilities to weaken Iran’s ballistic missile program, including the IRGC Aerospace Force’s underground Bakhtaran missile base near Kermanshah.

Iran’s retaliation

Iran is seeking to impose tangible costs on the United States and its allies and push them toward a ceasefire before Washington and Israel achieve their stated goal of overthrowing the regime, ISW said. Iranian attacks on vessels near the Strait of Hormuz underscore that effort.

The IRGC announced the start of what it called “the most destructive offensive operation in the history of the Islamic Republic,” targeting U.S. bases and Israel. The statement was issued hours after Khamenei’s death was confirmed.

On Feb. 28 and March 1, Iran continued attacks on U.S. and allied facilities, including in the Persian Gulf and Iraq. Targets included:

• Ali Al Salem Air Base in Kuwait, which hosts U.S. and Kuwaiti forces.
• A naval base in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, where French troops are stationed.
• Erbil International Airport in Iraq, as well as the U.S. consulate and bases in Erbil.

Ayatollah Ali Reza Arafi is serving as Iran’s acting Supreme Leader. ISW noted that Arafi was part of Khamenei’s inner circle and had been elevated by him in recent years.

Iran’s constitution stipulates that the president, the head of the judiciary and a member of the Guardian Council assume the Supreme Leader’s duties after his death until the Assembly of Experts convenes to elect a successor. Arafi, a senior cleric, has served as a member of the Assembly of Experts since June 2021.

Khamenei appointed Arafi to senior posts over the past decade, underscoring his trust in him. In 2015, Khamenei named Arafi a key cleric in Qom — the spiritual and ideological center of the Islamic Republic. In 2016, Arafi became head of Iran’s seminaries. In 2019, he was appointed to the Guardian Council, which oversees elections and reviews legislation.

Iran continues missile strikes against Israel, but as of the time of ISW’s report, there were no confirmed impacts on Israeli military facilities.

On Feb. 28 and March 1, Iranian missiles and drones struck civilian infrastructure in several Persian Gulf states, including airports, hotels and ports in Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Oman.

Open-source intelligence analysts estimate that since the start of the U.S.-Israel campaign, Iran has launched between 300–500 missiles and 270–500 drones as of March 1.