Before the summit in Vilnius in July 2023, not only the Ukrainian society, but also Ukraine’s leadership had inflated expectations regarding its results. To a country resisting Russian armed aggression, it seemed that if not immediate membership, at least an invitation to join the alliance might be in the cards.
But the only thing Ukraine got in 2023 was the removal of the Membership Action Plan as a prerequisite for joining the alliance. At the time, we didn’t see any specifics that could indicate a consensus among the allies regarding Ukraine’s membership. And perhaps that’s why the Ukrainian government and society had no elevated expectations from the Washington summit. While the declaration that Kyiv is on an irreversible path to membership is a good signal, what will our relationship with NATO look like in the immediate future?
We must understand that in fact, the 75th NATO summit might have been the last chance to cement Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic integration for the foreseeable future. Of course, no one knows what U.S. policy will be like if Donald Trump wins the presidential election in November. But the fact that the former U.S. president has much less interest in cooperation with NATO than Joe Biden isn’t a secret.
So, the question isn’t even how Trump will treat Ukraine and the possibilities of ending the war, but how he will engage with NATO and its potential expansion.
In addition, any process of Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic integration—up to the moment when all allies are ready to risk a possible conflict with Russia and not succumb to [Russian dictator] Vladimir Putin’s blackmail—will be part of efforts to stop the Russian-Ukrainian war. Moscow will continue to demand Ukraine’s neutrality and abandonment of NATO aspirations as prerequisites for any negotiations. This may not affect Ukraine’s policy, but it might influence at least some NATO countries, forcing them to be more restrained in supporting Kyiv’s Euro-Atlantic integration.
So, what could be the scenario for the coming years? I can outright say that we will not join NATO while the war still rages on the battlefield—that is not on the table for NATO members. Even Biden insisted that a victory over Russia is a prerequisite for Ukraine’s accession to NATO. But what might happen after the war?
Much will depend on the conditions of the peace or ceasefire, on how much of Ukrainian territory will remain under Kyiv’s control. If Russia fails to force Ukraine to renounce Euro-Atlantic integration, much will depend on the readiness of NATO countries themselves to agree to Ukraine’s accession.
If territorial integrity isn’t restored, even if hostilities cease, the option of full membership doesn’t look very realistic. However, we can imagine a situation when Ukraine receives an invitation to join the alliance, but the ratification of its accession by the national parliaments of NATO countries will take place only after the issue of territorial integrity is resolved. That is, Ukraine may remain in the status of an invited country for many years but may hope for intermediate guarantees—similar to those Finland and Sweden received after applying for membership in 2022. Here, of course, everything will also depend on the political will of NATO countries, primarily the nuclear powers.
Nevertheless, the very fact that the alliance finally agreed that Ukrainian membership is inevitable, represents an important signal to both us and Russia about NATO’s strategic intentions and policy. This is a marathon. And only those who are prepared for a long, difficult, and dangerous race can reach the finish line.