What could the Kremlin face after a ‘historic and pivotal’ Russian drone incident in Romania? — Brief interview

— How serious an escalation is this for NATO, or at least for NATO’s European allies? Could there be some kind of response? Or will there be no response because of fear of escalation?

— No, I think fear of escalation has clearly moved into the background. If you look at what is being said and what is happening inside European institutions, fear of escalation is no longer what drives their decisions.

Frankly, I think this is a historic event. This was not simply a drone that crossed into another country’s airspace — it hit a residential building, and people were injured. In that sense, this is far more serious than previous episodes in which drones entered neighboring countries or debris fell on their territory.

It is especially important to stress that the drone struck Romania at a time when the Kremlin is very actively threatening both the Baltic states — Kremlin spokespeople are doing so publicly — and Finland. I think similar threats against Poland may come very soon.

So this is an extremely important moment. And I think there will undoubtedly be consequences. The question is how they will take shape and what exactly will happen, but this is certainly a pivotal event.

— Let’s try to model this. What range of consequences, at least in theory, could the Kremlin face?

— If we are talking about consequences, the first would be increased military aid to Ukraine from European countries. That comes first.

And, in fact, something like that is already happening. Just recently, we saw reports that Ukraine and Sweden had signed an agreement expanding military cooperation. If five or six more of Europe’s largest economies join similar arrangements, that would be quite significant.

Will NATO deliver a decisive response right now specifically to the drone strike? No, I don’t think so. But it is clear what is now being discussed. That whole period is over — the period after U.S.-Russian negotiations disappeared, along with the broader framework of talks involving various countries over a possible settlement. All of that is now behind us.

It seems to me that European countries, NATO and the alliance as a whole are now entering a moment when they will assess how the summer campaign unfolds and adopt new plans.

If you are asking how I personally see this, I will not answer, because the range of possible measures is well known. But it is quite difficult to say which of them will actually be adopted.