Ukrainian expert analyzes impact of Putin’s reshuffle – Radio NV interview
Nation13 May 2024, 06:55 PM
"It's intriguing that [Nikolai] Patrushev was ousted and [Sergei] Shoigu took over as Russian Security Council Secretary," said Oleksandr Leonov.
"The big question is where Patrushev will end up next. Regardless of whether he secures a formal position, he will lose influence," he added.
Leonov also mentioned speculation about Patrushev's son, Dmitry, as a potential successor to Putin.
"And if Patrushev Sr. isn't appointed, and his son still becomes Deputy Prime Minister, then Patrushev Jr. might withdraw from the succession race, leading to a reshuffling of influence," Leonov explained.
Regarding Shoigu's transition from Defense Minister to Security Council Secretary, Leonov suggested he "might turn the Russian Security Council into a 'dumping ground,' a fate similar to its previous role as a refuge for sidelined officials."
Putin's decree on May 12 replaced Patrushev with Shoigu as Security Council Secretary. Patrushev, who had led the council since May 2008, was "dismissed to transition to another job," the decree stated, without detailing his new position.
Dmitry Patrushev, the son of Nikolai Patrushev, was appointed as deputy prime minister, pending approval by the Russian State Duma on May 13.
In September 2022, Foreign Affairs Magazine labeled Nikolai Patrushev, slightly older than Putin, as a potential successor, noting his age as a potential disadvantage.
Russian attorney Mark Feygin speculated in an interview with Yevgeny Kiselyov that Dmitry Patrushev, then agriculture minister, could be a contender to replace Putin.
"They could make him deputy prime minister and shuffle him around from there," Feygin said at the time, calling it a "feasible scenario."
Politico also discussed rumors in 2022 about Dmitry Patrushev potentially succeeding Putin.
Political scientist Volodymyr Fesenko noted in January 2023 that there were rumors Putin had promised to designate Dmitry Patrushev as his successor.
Mykhailo Podolyak, a Ukrainian presidential advisor, argued that Dmitry Patrushev "lacks charisma" and influence over Russian political elites, suggesting he would not be a viable successor to Putin.