Putin doubles down on war despite mounting losses and stalled gains — Politico

Dettmer argues that the Kremlin is pursuing what he likens to a “something will turn up” strategy, borrowed from Mr. Micawber in a Charles Dickens novel — waiting for circumstances to change despite battlefield limits.

Despite enormous casualties, Russian forces have failed to seize all of the Donbas. Over the past year, they have advanced with difficulty and occupied 4,700 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory but have not broken through what the author calls a “belt of fortresses.” In Zaporizhzhya Oblast, Russian troops were forced to retreat.

Still, the war continues. Analysts say Putin needs a major victory to justify to his public the immense cost of the conflict. Dismantling the wartime economy would pose serious political risks. He must also determine how to manage tens of thousands of “veterans.”

That is where the Micawber principle comes in, the columnist suggests. Despite manpower shortages, Russia appears capable of sustaining military operations for some time.

Putin may also be counting on Ukraine to weaken internally. Russia’s bombardment of the country’s energy infrastructure is clearly intended to break Ukrainians’ will, the columnist writes.

The Russian dictator may now face a dilemma, Dettmer argues.

“His war on the battlefield is lost in the sense that he does not have the forces to conquer Ukraine — but he is waiting for something to change,” the columnist concludes.

On Jan. 22, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Russian losses had reached a record 35,000 soldiers killed per month, compared with about 14,000 last year.

He said that despite mobilizing 40,000-43,000 people each month, Russia is losing up to 45,000 troops through desertions, injuries and the effectiveness of Ukrainian drone technologies.

On Feb. 6, Ukraine’s commander-in-chief, Oleksandr Syrskyi, said that in January 2026 Russian army losses in killed and seriously wounded exceeded 31,700 — surpassing the number of personnel replenishments.

In an interview with Le Monde published on Feb. 21, Syrskyi said that in 2025 Russian army losses for the first time exceeded the number of recruits it was able to mobilize.

On Feb. 23, Oleksandr Syrskyi reported that on the Oleksandrivka front — at the junction of Donetsk, Zaporizhzhya and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts — Ukrainian defenders since late January have regained control of 400 square kilometers of territory and eight settlements.