Russia may need over 1.3T rubles to rescue Wildberries after drone strikes

To prevent financial collapse and bankruptcy, the state will most likely step in to save Wildberries, two e-commerce market sources told The Bell. According to one estimate, direct losses alone for Wildberries — which lost approximately 20% of its warehouse capacity within a few weeks — could exceed 100 billion rubles ($1.26 billion), and in a worst-case scenario, 200 billion rubles ($2.52 billion).

The company's total funding requirement, as indicated by estimates from The Bell's interlocutors, could reach 1.3 trillion rubles ($16.4 billion). The company will need to increase its debt burden by at least this amount to "reinvent itself," one source explained.

Due to an outflow of merchants — many of whom instantly lost businesses and inventory worth hundreds of billions of rubles — Wildberries' turnover has already dropped by a quarter, according to The Bell. Beyond direct losses, this drop broke the central financial pillar of Tatyana Kim's business empire.

The core of the issue lies in Wildberries' cash flow mechanism: the marketplace collects funds from buyers immediately upon purchase but transfers payouts to sellers only several weeks later. During this period, the cash remains in working capital, financing ongoing operational expenses and customer discounts.

However, this model functions only as long as turnover continues to grow, a source described to The Bell: "If turnover was 100 billion, you spent 50 billion on discounts, but turnover grew to 200 billion." When turnover contracts, the pyramid begins to crumble.

Accumulated expenses are no longer covered by incoming funds, causing the company to stack losses, The Bell's source explained. If seller payouts are delayed for three months instead of three weeks, working capital crises will cascade directly to the merchants. With marketplace turnover currently falling, this marks only the beginning of a prolonged trend — following a blow of this magnitude, the company will remain unprofitable for many years, another source asserted.

It remains unclear precisely how the government intends to rescue Wildberries. According to The Moscow Times, the Russian government is preparing a support package for merchants, which may include tax holidays and subsidized loans, while permitting the marketplace to utilize Russian Post (Pochta Rossii) warehouses to replace incinerated logistics hubs.

Wildberries itself may also receive subsidized credit lines, The Bell's sources noted.

"But where will the money come from? Turning on the printing press?" one source questioned.

According to Ministry of Finance data, the federal budget deficit reached 5.7 trillion rubles ($72 billion) in the first half of the year — 1.5 times higher than the target for the entire year. The Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting (CMACP) projects the fiscal gap will widen to 7 trillion rubles ($88.4 billion) by year-end, while Central Bank estimates suggest it could exceed 8 trillion rubles ($101 billion).

Earlier reports confirmed that drones attacked Ryazan on July 29, 2026, striking a local oil refinery and a Wildberries warehouse, causing large-scale fires.

Wildberries later restricted access to its Ryazan facility. Drones also struck a Wildberries logistics center in Penza, triggering a fire at the impact site.

Another warehouse facility was hit in Russia's Udmurt Republic.

Amid this, Wildberries began seeking vacant warehouse space in Kazakhstan following mass Ukrainian drone strikes on its domestic assets, expressing readiness to lease all available commercial space in the country.

The Russian government is considering measures to support Wildberries and affiliated businesses following the Ukrainian drone strikes, with state-owned VTB Bank expected to play a central role in the recovery package.

Wildberries announced that assessing damage will require at least 30 days before the company can initiate compensation payouts to sellers whose goods were stored at affected facilities.

Russian media outlets report that Ukrainian strikes on Wildberries have achieved tangible economic results, effectively altering retail dynamics in Russia as sellers exit and consumer prices climb.

Russian business leaders warned the Kremlin of the broader consequences of the Wildberries strikes, stating that tax revenues to the aggressor's budget will dry up. The Kremlin responded immediately to the warning.

Concurrently, competing Russian marketplace Ozon announced plans to mitigate operational risks across its own facility network.

In total, the Armed Forces of Ukraine disabled eight Wildberries warehouses spanning approximately 860,000 square meters over a week and a half, representing 15.4% of the marketplace's total warehouse footprint (5.6 million square meters).

Following the warehouse strikes, retail prices on Russian online marketplaces surged by 10% to 30%.