Ukrainian counterattack in the South pushes back Russian advances

The publication recalled that Ukraine has refuted Russian claims of significant battlefield gains, liberating the city of Kupiansk in Kharkiv Oblast and recapturing several villages in Zaporizhzhya Oblast.

According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies, total Russian losses amount to about 1.2 million people, including 325,000 killed — more than double Ukraine’s losses.

As The Wall Street Journal noted, while Russia has long relied on large payments to attract volunteers, there are signs that recruitment is now failing to keep pace with losses.

Unidentified Western military officials concluded that recruitment into the Russian army is declining. Over the past three months, Russia has been recruiting 30,000 to 35,000 soldiers per month, but, according to an unnamed Western official, the number of killed and wounded exceeded that figure.

Some analysts say the manpower shortage is one reason Moscow may struggle to achieve significant gains on the battlefield.

According to CSIS, Russian advances in some directions are proceeding more slowly than during the infamous Battle of the Somme in World War I. In the city of Chasiv Yar in Donetsk Oblast, for example, Russian forces advanced just over six miles at an average rate of about 16 yards per day.

An anonymous Western official noted that last year Russia managed to seize only about 0.8% of Ukraine’s territory.

Military intelligence services in several European countries believe Moscow will continue to gradually seize territory even at the cost of very high losses.

The WSJ emphasized that Russian troops are largely advancing on foot in groups of no more than a few soldiers, creeping forward under artillery fire and drone attacks while trying to survive and wait for reinforcements.

The report said such tactics lead to heavy Russian losses and weak control over captured areas, giving Ukraine opportunities to counterattack.

On Feb. 10, Ukrainian troops reported successful counterattacks by the Defense Forces near the administrative border between Zaporizhzhya and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts.

At the same time, the spokesperson for Ukraine’s Southern Defense Forces, Col. Vladyslav Voloshyn, denied claims by Russian military bloggers about a Ukrainian “counteroffensive.”

In a report on Feb. 12, analysts at the Institute for the Study of War said Ukrainian forces were conducting localized counterattacks near the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhya oblasts, taking advantage of limited communications in the Russian army due to the blocking of Starlink and Telegram.

On Feb. 20, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukrainian troops liberated 300 square kilometers of territory in the south during counteroffensive assault actions. He did not specify the period over which the territory was recaptured.

On Feb. 23, Ukrainian Armed Forces Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said that in the Oleksandrivsk direction, at the junction of Donetsk, Zaporizhzhya and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts, Ukrainian defenders since late January have regained control of 400 square kilometers of territory and eight settlements.