In recent interviews and public statements, Zelenskyy
indicated a readiness to negotiate a ceasefire. Throughout most of the war, he
maintained that Ukraine would fight until it regained approximately 20% of its
territory occupied by Russia. Now, he hints at a potential ceasefire that would
leave occupied territories “in Moscow’s hands” if the rest of Ukraine received
NATO protection.
The report notes two significant obstacles: Ukraine’s
near-term chances of joining NATO are slim, and there’s no sign that Russian
dictator Vladimir Putin is willing to negotiate.
In a press conference on Dec. 1, Zelenskyy said Ukraine
would only enter negotiations from a position of strength, requiring further
steps toward NATO membership and additional Western long-range weapon supplies.
“If we have a frozen conflict without a strong position, Putin will return in
two, three, or five years to destroy us,” he stated.
On Nov. 29, speaking to Sky News, Zelenskyy emphasized that
NATO membership should be offered to unoccupied parts of Ukraine to consider
ending the “active phase of the war.” While reaffirming Ukraine’s claim to all
its territory, he suggested diplomatic efforts to regain control. He repeated
this view in an interview with Japan’s Kyodo News, saying, “Our army lacks the
strength for this... We must find diplomatic solutions.”
WSJ suggests Zelenskyy’s rhetoric reflects growing fatigue
among Ukrainians, eager to end the war, while major Western capitals, including
Washington and Berlin, remain reluctant to accelerate NATO integration. Zelenskyy
continues to push for a NATO invitation, acknowledging that membership is
possible only after the war ends. Currently, Ukrainian and European officials
urge NATO foreign ministers to recommend inviting Ukraine to the alliance.
Officials in Washington, Berlin, and other countries worry
that Ukraine’s NATO accession could escalate Western confrontation with Moscow.
Meanwhile, European officials align their positions with the plans of U.S.
President-elect Donald Trump. Negotiators in Kyiv noted “nervousness” in
Zelenskyy’s team, suggesting they are adjusting to Trump’s focus on ending the
war.
In Brussels and Kyiv, cautious optimism exists that Trump’s
administration might secure real concessions from the Kremlin if Putin agrees
to talks. However, many Western officials remain skeptical about Russian
willingness, given Moscow’s battlefield gains.
Some Ukrainian officials admit that, without NATO, relying
on military support from allies could help deter Russia. Zelenskyy has publicly
criticized the shortfall in Western aid compared to promises, noting the
financial burden may be too high for Western governments, especially if Trump
reduces support.
A Ukrainian official estimated Kyiv would need around €120
billion in military aid next year to match Russia’s defense spending. Earlier,
Ukraine’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that the country would not accept
any “alternatives, surrogates, or substitutes” for full NATO membership.
NATO membership invitation
Inviting Ukraine to NATO is the first point in President
Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s victory plan, presented to European leaders on Oct. 17 in
Brussels.
NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte recently stated that
Ukraine will eventually become the alliance’s 33rd or 34th member. However, Politico
reported that NATO has yet to respond to Zelenskyy’s call for an invitation.
On Oct. 16, U.S. Ambassador to NATO Julianne Smith indicated
the alliance is not planning to invite Ukraine soon. Similarly, Ukraine’s envoy
to NATO, Nataliya Galibarenko, told Reuters that Kyiv is pushing for an invitation
before U.S. President Joe Biden leaves office.
NATO Parliamentary Assembly President Gerry Connolly has
stated that Ukraine can only receive an invitation after restoring sovereignty
over its territories. Meanwhile, Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha reiterated
Ukraine’s call for an invitation on Nov. 29.
Despite Ukraine’s efforts, Reuters reported that NATO is unlikely to support Kyiv’s request during the Dec. 3 meeting.