Kremlin inflates military gains to convince West of 'inevitable victory' over Ukraine
Moscow seeks to convince the West that Ukraine cannot win (Photo: Ukrainian Armed Forces/Handout via REUTERS)
The Russian military leadership systematically publishes false data about its battlefield successes, creating an illusion of rapid advances and an “inevitable victory” over Ukraine, according to an Aug. 30 report by the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Analysts believe the Kremlin has launched a coordinated information campaign to influence Western audiences and pressure Ukraine’s allies to reduce support.
Russian General Staff Chief Valery Gerasimov claimed that since March 2025, Russian forces captured 3,500 km² of Ukrainian territory and 149 settlements. ISW estimates these figures are inflated by at least 1,200 km² and 19 settlements, with Russia actually controlling about 2,346 km² and partially occupying 130 settlements.
Gerasimov specifically claimed control over most of Kupyansk and several villages in Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts. However, ISW emphasized that these claims are exaggerated. Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov also spread false data, asserting that Russian forces advance 600–700 km² monthly, while actual gains in 2025 were no more than 440–500 km².
According to ISW, the goal of these statements is to create the impression among Western partners that Russia’s offensive is unstoppable, pushing Ukraine toward concessions.
The Kremlin’s claims ignore the true scale of losses, with Russian sources reporting at least 93,000 troops killed in 2024 and over 56,000 in 2025—record figures that undermine Russia’s offensive sustainability in the medium and long term.
Despite using mobile groups on ATVs, buggies, and motorcycles, Russian advances remain “creeping” and no faster than walking pace, with forces unable to sustain even localized breakthroughs.
ISW analysts view the Kremlin’s boastful claims as part of a manipulative strategy, noting that Russia’s “successes” come at the cost of massive losses and lack strategic durability.
“The Kremlin is trying to convince the West that Russia will inevitably achieve its war goals on the battlefield, such that Ukraine should concede to Russian demands and the West should therefore cease its support of Ukraine,” ISW said.
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