Putin shows little interest in peace, wants more of Ukraine — ISW
ISW experts analyzed Putin's speech at the expanded meeting of the Russian Defense Ministry's board on December 17 (Photo: Sputnik/Alexander Kazakov/Pool via REUTERS)
New statements by Vladimir Putin show how little interest he has in a U.S.-proposed peace deal and underscore the importance of strong security guarantees for Ukraine, the Institute for the Study of War said in a new report on Dec. 18.
ISW analysts examined Putin’s speech at an expanded meeting of the board of Russia’s Defense Ministry on Dec. 17, in which he said Russia would “undoubtedly” achieve its military objectives in Ukraine. The analysts view this as a public and direct statement of the Kremlin’s unwavering commitment to maximalist military goals in Ukraine — the same goals for which Putin launched the full-scale invasion in 2022.
In the speech, Putin reiterated his claim that Russia seeks to eliminate the “root causes of the war” — a shorthand the Kremlin uses for its original military demands, ISW noted. Putin also reaffirmed Russia’s intent to ultimately achieve broader territorial goals in Ukraine, asserting that Russia would “liberate its historical lands” by military means if Ukraine and the West “refuse to engage in substantive negotiations.”
Responding to this remark, ISW recalled that Kremlin officials, including Putin, have repeatedly described large swaths of Ukrainian territory beyond Crimea and the four oblasts Russia has illegally claimed to annex — Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson — as “historically Russian.” Kremlin officials have frequently called Odesa a “Russian” city and referred to “Novorossiya,” an amorphous, invented Oblast that Moscow claims is an “inseparable part” of Russia and encompasses areas of southern and eastern Ukraine.
Analysts also note that the Kremlin has repeatedly rejected peace plans proposed by the United States and Ukraine, attempting to shift blame for the lack of progress in negotiations onto Ukraine. Putin’s new statement about being prepared to seize “historical” territories if Ukraine and the West refuse to negotiate is therefore likely aimed at shifting responsibility for the continuation of the war from Russia to Ukraine.
Putin’s statements continue to show that he would not be satisfied with a peace agreement based on the initial 28-point plan proposed by the United States, ISW stressed. The institute recalled that Moscow has made no public, direct statements indicating agreement with this plan or any of its revised versions. Instead, Kremlin officials have effectively rejected many of its provisions in recent weeks. Putin’s latest remarks clearly indicate that he has no intention of abandoning his maximalist objectives in Ukraine and would seek to achieve them after any pause in fighting if the terms of a cease-fire do not meet his goals, ISW warned. Repeated Kremlin statements contradicting the U.S. peace framework also cast doubt on Putin’s willingness to accept even this outline agreement and underscore how critical robust security guarantees for Ukraine would be to the durability of any deal.
ISW emphasized that the original 28-point plan envisaged Russia relinquishing territory it controls in parts of Sumy and Kharkiv oblasts and freezing the front line in Kherson and Zaporizhzhya oblasts. However, Putin and Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov on Dec. 17 effectively stated that Russia is not satisfied with these boundaries. Putin said Russian forces are creating and expanding “buffer zones” in Ukraine. Belousov continued to claim that Russian forces had captured Kupiansk, despite evidence that Ukrainian forces have liberated a significant portion of the city. Belousov also asserted that the “capture of Kupiansk” would expand Russia’s buffer zone in Kharkiv oblast. Putin had previously ordered Russian invaders to create a buffer zone in northern Kharkiv and Sumy oblasts, and the Kremlin is now likely to demand that Ukraine’s defense forces withdraw from those areas as well. Belousov also stressed Russia’s intent to take control of all of Zaporizhzhya Oblast, claiming that current efforts to capture Huliaipole and Orikhiv would “pave the way” for seizing entire Oblast.
Robust security guarantees for Ukraine would therefore be a critical safeguard to ensure that any future agreement leads to a lasting peace, ISW said. However, the Kremlin has publicly rejected the idea of such guarantees. Moscow likely seeks to conclude a “peace agreement” without any guarantees for Ukraine in order to set conditions for resuming aggression in the future and achieving Putin’s maximalist war aim — gaining full, effective control over Ukraine, the Institute for the Study of War concluded.
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