ISW

Wildberries attacks force Kremlin to stretch air defenses across Moscow Oblast

Ukraine’s intensified strikes on Wildberries facilities in Russia could place further pressure on the country’s already overstretched air defenses and increasingly inconvenience Russians who use the platform, the Institute for the Study of War said in a report.

25 July, 11:35 AM

Russian ship numbers in the Sea of Azov may have halved since July – ISW

Russian-flagged vessels operating with active Automatic Identification System (AIS) transponders in the Sea of Azov may have dropped by 55% between June 30 and July 11, according to Starboard Maritime Intelligence data cited by the Institute for the Study of War in a report released on July 12.

12 July, 03:00 PM

Russia is increasing use of jet-powered Shahed drones – Flash

Russia is increasingly using jet-powered Shahed drones to attack Ukrainian rear cities, reflecting a tactical shift predicted a year ago, Ukrainian Defense Ministry adviser Serhii Beskrestnov (Flash) said on July 6.

6 July, 06:07 PM

DeepState explains why Russia's ceasefire proposal for Kostiantynivka is a trap

Analysts at DeepState said a Russian Defense Ministry proposal for a ceasefire in the embattled city of Kostiantynivka is aimed at advancing Moscow's military objectives rather than ending hostilities, warning it could conceal a broader tactical plan on July 6.

6 July, 11:24 AM

ISW rejects Putin's claims of major Russian battlefield gains in Ukraine

Vladimir Putin used a staged meeting with military commanders to exaggerate Russia's battlefield gains and promote a narrative of continuous military success that does not reflect conditions on the front, the Institute for the Study of War said on July 5.

5 July, 09:15 AM

ISW rebuts Putin’s claims of sweeping Russian gains across Ukraine front

Russian dictator Vladimir Putin made another series of sharply exaggerated claims about Russian troop advances in Ukraine in a recent interview with propagandist Pavel Zarubin, statements that do not match battlefield realities — including around Kostiantynivka, Dobropillya and Kupyansk.

30 June, 12:25 PM

Russia will use Moscow drone attacks to justify massive strikes on Ukraine, ISW says

The Kremlin has begun laying the information groundwork to continue and intensify its strikes on Ukraine after a record drone attack on Moscow on June 18, the Institute for the Study of War said in its June 19 report.

20 June, 11:36 AM

Ukrainian strikes exposed weaknesses in Moscow's air defenses – ISW

Ukrainian strikes on Moscow exposed vulnerabilities in Russia's air defense system, while pro-war Russian military bloggers openly criticized censorship and authorities' failure to protect civilians from the consequences of the war, the Institute for the Study of War said on June 19.

19 June, 10:57 AM

Putin struck Kyiv to mask Moscow's failure to protect itself – ISW

Russia's massive missile and drone attack on Kyiv and several other major Ukrainian cities on June 15 was likely aimed at breaking Ukraine's will to fight and masking the Kremlin's own weaknesses, the Institute for the Study of War said in its latest assessment on June 16.

16 June, 10:38 AM

Putin expands Russian army, but ISW sees no impact on Ukraine battlefield

A decree signed by Russian dictator Vladimir Putin to expand Russia’s armed forces as part of ongoing military reforms will not affect the battlefield situation in Ukraine, analysts at the Institute for the Study of War said in a June 13 report.

14 June, 02:26 PM

Putin admits some Russian frontline failures – ISW

Vladimir Putin has begun publicly acknowledging some battlefield setbacks in Ukraine in an apparent effort to appear better informed about frontline realities, the Institute for the Study of War said in its latest assessment on June 13.

13 June, 01:36 PM

Russia may launch Oreshnik missile to project strength after Russia Day

Russia may launch another Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile at Ukraine within the next 24 to 48 hours in an apparent attempt to project strength following Russia Day celebrations on June 12, the Institute for the Study of War said in an analysis on June 13.

13 June, 11:46 AM

Russian troops enter more of Kostiantynivka but fail to seize central rail hub

Russian forces have recently made tactical gains in Kostiantynivka, one of the targets of Moscow’s spring and summer offensive, the Institute for the Study of War said in its June 10 report.

11 June, 10:14 AM

Russia threatens sanctions as Pashinyan’s Armenia pulls further from Moscow

The Kremlin is trying to discredit the results of Armenia’s parliamentary election, won by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s Civil Contract party, the Institute for the Study of War said in a June 9 report.

10 June, 11:17 AM

Ukraine cuts into Russia’s Crimea lifeline as strike campaign expands

Ukraine is widening its medium-range strike campaign against Russia’s main logistics routes, and its effects are likely to grow in the near term unless Russian forces develop countermeasures, the Institute for the Study of War said.

10 June, 10:51 AM

Ukrainian strikes rattle Russia’s war hawks as Kremlin underestimates Kyiv

Ukraine’s medium- and long-range strikes are fueling anger and panic among Russian military bloggers, who complain that Ukraine’s Armed Forces are hitting critical defense and industrial infrastructure and disabling radar stations and air defense systems, the Institute for the Study of War said in its June 7 report.

8 June, 10:42 AM

Russia’s battlefield edge weakens as Ukraine retakes more territory, ISW finds

Multiple sources point to declining Russian combat effectiveness on the battlefield, even though they use different mapping methods to assess territorial gains and losses, the Institute for the Study of War said in its June 6 report.

7 June, 03:22 PM

Putin’s commanders inflate Russian gains as Ukraine offensive slows, ISW finds

Russia’s military command regularly shows dictator Vladimir Putin exaggerated data on Russian advances at the front in Ukraine, prompting the Kremlin leader to make increasingly unrealistic demands in peace talks, the Institute for the Study of War said on May 28.

29 May, 12:14 PM

Putin threatens Kyiv strikes to mask post-ceasefire humiliation, ISW finds

Russia has threatened “systematic” strikes on Kyiv in an effort to project strength after the humiliation surrounding the May 9–11 three-day ceasefire, while also trying to cast preplanned missile and drone attacks as a “response” to Ukraine, the Institute for the Study of War said in its May 25 report.

26 May, 10:25 AM

U.S. tests Minuteman III missile after Russia launches nuclear drills

The United States conducted an unarmed test launch of a Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California, shortly after Russia began its largest nuclear exercises in recent history, the U.S. Air Force said on May 20.

21 May, 11:29 AM

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