ISW

Russia will use Moscow drone attacks to justify massive strikes on Ukraine, ISW says

The Kremlin has begun laying the information groundwork to continue and intensify its strikes on Ukraine after a record drone attack on Moscow on June 18, the Institute for the Study of War said in its June 19 report.

20 June, 11:36 AM

Ukrainian strikes exposed weaknesses in Moscow's air defenses – ISW

Ukrainian strikes on Moscow exposed vulnerabilities in Russia's air defense system, while pro-war Russian military bloggers openly criticized censorship and authorities' failure to protect civilians from the consequences of the war, the Institute for the Study of War said on June 19.

19 June, 10:57 AM

Putin struck Kyiv to mask Moscow's failure to protect itself – ISW

Russia's massive missile and drone attack on Kyiv and several other major Ukrainian cities on June 15 was likely aimed at breaking Ukraine's will to fight and masking the Kremlin's own weaknesses, the Institute for the Study of War said in its latest assessment on June 16.

16 June, 10:38 AM

Putin expands Russian army, but ISW sees no impact on Ukraine battlefield

A decree signed by Russian dictator Vladimir Putin to expand Russia’s armed forces as part of ongoing military reforms will not affect the battlefield situation in Ukraine, analysts at the Institute for the Study of War said in a June 13 report.

14 June, 02:26 PM

Putin admits some Russian frontline failures – ISW

Vladimir Putin has begun publicly acknowledging some battlefield setbacks in Ukraine in an apparent effort to appear better informed about frontline realities, the Institute for the Study of War said in its latest assessment on June 13.

13 June, 01:36 PM

Russia may launch Oreshnik missile to project strength after Russia Day

Russia may launch another Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile at Ukraine within the next 24 to 48 hours in an apparent attempt to project strength following Russia Day celebrations on June 12, the Institute for the Study of War said in an analysis on June 13.

13 June, 11:46 AM

Russian troops enter more of Kostiantynivka but fail to seize central rail hub

Russian forces have recently made tactical gains in Kostiantynivka, one of the targets of Moscow’s spring and summer offensive, the Institute for the Study of War said in its June 10 report.

11 June, 10:14 AM

Russia threatens sanctions as Pashinyan’s Armenia pulls further from Moscow

The Kremlin is trying to discredit the results of Armenia’s parliamentary election, won by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s Civil Contract party, the Institute for the Study of War said in a June 9 report.

10 June, 11:17 AM

Ukraine cuts into Russia’s Crimea lifeline as strike campaign expands

Ukraine is widening its medium-range strike campaign against Russia’s main logistics routes, and its effects are likely to grow in the near term unless Russian forces develop countermeasures, the Institute for the Study of War said.

10 June, 10:51 AM

Ukrainian strikes rattle Russia’s war hawks as Kremlin underestimates Kyiv

Ukraine’s medium- and long-range strikes are fueling anger and panic among Russian military bloggers, who complain that Ukraine’s Armed Forces are hitting critical defense and industrial infrastructure and disabling radar stations and air defense systems, the Institute for the Study of War said in its June 7 report.

8 June, 10:42 AM

Russia’s battlefield edge weakens as Ukraine retakes more territory, ISW finds

Multiple sources point to declining Russian combat effectiveness on the battlefield, even though they use different mapping methods to assess territorial gains and losses, the Institute for the Study of War said in its June 6 report.

7 June, 03:22 PM

Putin’s commanders inflate Russian gains as Ukraine offensive slows, ISW finds

Russia’s military command regularly shows dictator Vladimir Putin exaggerated data on Russian advances at the front in Ukraine, prompting the Kremlin leader to make increasingly unrealistic demands in peace talks, the Institute for the Study of War said on May 28.

29 May, 12:14 PM

Putin threatens Kyiv strikes to mask post-ceasefire humiliation, ISW finds

Russia has threatened “systematic” strikes on Kyiv in an effort to project strength after the humiliation surrounding the May 9–11 three-day ceasefire, while also trying to cast preplanned missile and drone attacks as a “response” to Ukraine, the Institute for the Study of War said in its May 25 report.

26 May, 10:25 AM

U.S. tests Minuteman III missile after Russia launches nuclear drills

The United States conducted an unarmed test launch of a Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California, shortly after Russia began its largest nuclear exercises in recent history, the U.S. Air Force said on May 20.

21 May, 11:29 AM

ISW rejects Russia’s claim of capturing Kupyansk as front-line push stalls

Russia’s top military command has made false claims about the battlefield situation for the fifth straight month, baselessly saying its forces are advancing west of Kupyansk in Kharkiv Oblast even though they have not captured the city, the Institute for the Study of War said in its May 16 report.

17 May, 03:10 PM

Russia’s war economy shows new strain beneath Putin’s upbeat pitch

Russian dictator Vladimir Putin cast Russia’s latest economic figures as proof that government measures are working, even as the data points to mounting strain in the country’s economy, the Institute for the Study of War said in an analysis on May 15.

16 May, 11:47 AM

ISW: Ukraine’s battlefield gains leave Putin without Victory Day boasts

The scaled-back Moscow parade on May 9 showed mounting pressure on Russia in the fifth year of the war, while Ukraine’s battlefield gains left dictator Vladimir Putin unable to cite any Russian operational achievements during the celebrations, the Institute for the Study of War said.

10 May, 06:41 PM

ISW says Russia used ceasefire to reinforce positions

Russian and Ukrainian forces continued conducting offensive operations across the frontline during the first day of the May 9-11 ceasefire, although the intensity of fighting decreased, the Institute for the Study of War said in an assessment published on May 9.

10 May, 09:30 AM

Russia’s battlefield gains slow as Kremlin presses Donbas ultimatum — ISW

Moscow continues to demand that Ukrainian troops withdraw from the parts of Donbas still under Ukrainian control as a condition for a lasting ceasefire, even as Russian forces made slower gains in spring 2026 than they did in 2025, when the Kremlin began pushing the ultimatum more aggressively, the Institute for the Study of War said in a May 8 analysis.

9 May, 07:00 PM

Russia’s threats to strike Kyiv expose Kremlin weakness, ISW says

The Kremlin’s escalating threats to strike Kyiv with ballistic missiles ahead of Russia’s May 9 Victory Day were likely meant to conceal Moscow’s weakness and its inability to reliably protect much of its airspace from Ukrainian long-range strikes, the Institute for the Study of War said.

9 May, 10:23 AM

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