ISW

Ukrainian strikes rattle Russia’s war hawks as Kremlin underestimates Kyiv

Ukraine’s medium- and long-range strikes are fueling anger and panic among Russian military bloggers, who complain that Ukraine’s Armed Forces are hitting critical defense and industrial infrastructure and disabling radar stations and air defense systems, the Institute for the Study of War said in its June 7 report.

8 June, 10:42 AM

Russia’s battlefield edge weakens as Ukraine retakes more territory, ISW finds

Multiple sources point to declining Russian combat effectiveness on the battlefield, even though they use different mapping methods to assess territorial gains and losses, the Institute for the Study of War said in its June 6 report.

7 June, 03:22 PM

Putin’s commanders inflate Russian gains as Ukraine offensive slows, ISW finds

Russia’s military command regularly shows dictator Vladimir Putin exaggerated data on Russian advances at the front in Ukraine, prompting the Kremlin leader to make increasingly unrealistic demands in peace talks, the Institute for the Study of War said on May 28.

29 May, 12:14 PM

Putin threatens Kyiv strikes to mask post-ceasefire humiliation, ISW finds

Russia has threatened “systematic” strikes on Kyiv in an effort to project strength after the humiliation surrounding the May 9–11 three-day ceasefire, while also trying to cast preplanned missile and drone attacks as a “response” to Ukraine, the Institute for the Study of War said in its May 25 report.

26 May, 10:25 AM

U.S. tests Minuteman III missile after Russia launches nuclear drills

The United States conducted an unarmed test launch of a Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California, shortly after Russia began its largest nuclear exercises in recent history, the U.S. Air Force said on May 20.

21 May, 11:29 AM

ISW rejects Russia’s claim of capturing Kupyansk as front-line push stalls

Russia’s top military command has made false claims about the battlefield situation for the fifth straight month, baselessly saying its forces are advancing west of Kupyansk in Kharkiv Oblast even though they have not captured the city, the Institute for the Study of War said in its May 16 report.

17 May, 03:10 PM

Russia’s war economy shows new strain beneath Putin’s upbeat pitch

Russian dictator Vladimir Putin cast Russia’s latest economic figures as proof that government measures are working, even as the data points to mounting strain in the country’s economy, the Institute for the Study of War said in an analysis on May 15.

16 May, 11:47 AM

ISW: Ukraine’s battlefield gains leave Putin without Victory Day boasts

The scaled-back Moscow parade on May 9 showed mounting pressure on Russia in the fifth year of the war, while Ukraine’s battlefield gains left dictator Vladimir Putin unable to cite any Russian operational achievements during the celebrations, the Institute for the Study of War said.

10 May, 06:41 PM

ISW says Russia used ceasefire to reinforce positions

Russian and Ukrainian forces continued conducting offensive operations across the frontline during the first day of the May 9-11 ceasefire, although the intensity of fighting decreased, the Institute for the Study of War said in an assessment published on May 9.

10 May, 09:30 AM

Russia’s battlefield gains slow as Kremlin presses Donbas ultimatum — ISW

Moscow continues to demand that Ukrainian troops withdraw from the parts of Donbas still under Ukrainian control as a condition for a lasting ceasefire, even as Russian forces made slower gains in spring 2026 than they did in 2025, when the Kremlin began pushing the ultimatum more aggressively, the Institute for the Study of War said in a May 8 analysis.

9 May, 07:00 PM

Russia’s threats to strike Kyiv expose Kremlin weakness, ISW says

The Kremlin’s escalating threats to strike Kyiv with ballistic missiles ahead of Russia’s May 9 Victory Day were likely meant to conceal Moscow’s weakness and its inability to reliably protect much of its airspace from Ukrainian long-range strikes, the Institute for the Study of War said.

9 May, 10:23 AM

Russia made no major gains near Kostiantynivka despite reports – ISW

Russian forces first reached the outskirts of Kostiantynivka in eastern Ukraine in autumn 2025 but have made no significant advances since, the Institute for the Study of War said, despite recent reports of fighting near the city on May 5.

5 May, 10:45 AM

Ukraine advances near key Donetsk cities as Russia escalates infantry attacks

Ukrainian defense forces have advanced in the Slovyansk and Kostiantynivka sectors of Donetsk Oblast, the Institute for the Study of War reported on April 30.

1 May, 11:05 AM

Lavrov brands Ukraine, Europe ‘satanic’ and signals Russia won’t yield

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s latest accusations that Ukraine is persecuting Orthodox believers show the Kremlin is still relying on false religious narratives to justify its war and avoid meaningful peace talks, the Institute for the Study of War said on April 22.

23 April, 10:36 AM

ISW rebuts Gerasimov’s claims as Russia’s spring offensive stalls in Ukraine

Russian General Staff chief Valery Gerasimov is overstating Moscow’s gains in Ukraine, the Institute for the Study of War said on April 21, arguing that his latest claims are not supported by open-source evidence or even by pro-Russian military bloggers.

22 April, 11:10 AM

Russia has not abandoned offensive plans despite drop in fighting – Trehubov

Russian forces have reduced the intensity of combat over the past two days, but this does not indicate any change in plans for a new offensive, Joint Forces spokesman Viktor Trehubov said on air with Novyny.Live on Apr. 19.

19 April, 05:14 PM

Kremlin downplays Orbán loss after Russia loses key EU ally

The Kremlin is playing down Viktor Orbán’s election defeat after Russia lost one of its most important allies in Europe, the Institute for the Study of War said in its April 13 report.

14 April, 10:33 AM

Russian advance falters, focus shifts to Huliaipole – ISW

Russian forces are prioritizing an offensive toward Huliaipole in Zaporizhzhia Oblast despite Ukrainian counterattacks near Oleksandrivka that have forced them to deploy strategic reserves, the Institute for the Study of War said on Apr. 10.

11 April, 03:30 PM

Ukraine gains edge over Russia in drone warfare and intercepting enemy drones — ISW

Ukraine appears to have gained the upper hand over Russian forces in battlefield drone warfare, according to both Ukrainian reports and Russian pro-war military bloggers, the Institute for the Study of War said in its April 9 report.

10 April, 10:44 AM

Russian oil strikes expose air defense strain as war bloggers warn of missile shortages — ISW

Ukraine is expanding its long-range strike campaign against Russian oil infrastructure as Russian war bloggers complain their own air defenses are ineffective and unable to limit the damage from those attacks, the Institute for the Study of War said in a report on April 6.

7 April, 10:49 AM

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