Starlink restrictions won't affect Ukraine's ability to strike targets in Russia – ISW
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The ISW explained why Ukraine will be able to strike deep within Russian territory, despite restrictions on Starlink operations (Photo: 66th Separate Mechanized Brigade named after Prince Mstyslav the Brave/Facebook)
Starshield and Starlink speed restrictions cannot affect Ukraine's ability to launch long-range strikes inside Russia because Ukrainian forces lack access to either service there, the Institute for the Study of War said in a report on Oct. 14.
Experts explained that SpaceX has geographically restricted Ukraine's access to Starlink and Starshield to Ukrainian territory, forcing Ukrainian forces to rely on alternative communications systems and point-to-point navigation to strike targets inside Russia.
However, the Starshield speed restrictions are unrelated to those operations and will not prevent Ukrainian forces from striking Russian oil refineries, data centers and other stationary facilities inside Russia, the experts said.
They warned, however, that Starshield's speed restrictions could have serious consequences for Ukraine's efforts to intercept Russian jet-powered drones.
Kyiv is urgently expanding domestic production of interceptor drones, and the Starshield speed restrictions could undermine that progress, allowing Russian forces to continue terrorizing civilians ahead of and throughout the winter of 2026-27.
A Kremlin-linked Russian military blogger claimed that the Starlink speed restrictions, apparently referring to Starshield, had created a “window of opportunity” for Russian forces to inflict maximum damage on Ukraine's infrastructure.
Data from Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces covering Sept. 24 to Oct. 14 indicate that the Starshield speed restrictions have also weakened Ukraine's ability to intercept fixed-wing drones, further reducing Ukrainian air defense capabilities at the tactical and operational levels.
Starlink restrictions in Ukraine
Volunteer and former adviser to the defense minister Serhiy Sternenko was the first to report problems with Starlink on the morning of Oct. 14.
According to Sternenko, SpaceX restricted Ukrainian military terminals overnight based on drone speed, disrupting “several important missions.”
Serhiy Beskrestnov, known by the call sign Flash, confirmed the information and warned that the restrictions could prevent interceptor drones from shooting down jet-powered Shahed drones.
Ukraine's 7th Air Assault Corps reported communications disruptions in the Huliaipole sector.
The restrictions also affected Starshield, a military service package that had previously been exempt from such limits.
An NV source in the Defense Ministry confirmed that communications were being restricted at speeds exceeding 160 kilometers per hour (99 mph). The restrictions complicate logistics for Ukraine's Defense Forces, drone operations and medium-range strikes.
Senior officials in Kyiv told the Financial Times that the restrictions had been imposed without warning in the middle of the night.
Terminals began losing their signal at speeds above 160 kilometers per hour, disrupting several military missions early on Oct. 14.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy appealed to Elon Musk and called the Starlink slowdown “a big mistake.”
On Oct. 14, SpaceX owner Elon Musk said speed restrictions affecting the military Starshield service were determined by the U.S. government, not his company.
He made the statement in response to a post on X by former Ukrainian Prime Minister Mykhailo Fedorov.
The communications disruptions coincided with pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump's administration on Kyiv over strikes against Russian oil refineries. According to media reports, Washington had threatened to suspend intelligence sharing with Ukraine.
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