Putin’s ceasefire demands reveal true intentions: not peace, but another offensive - ISW
Putin's ceasefire demands would give him "disproportionate advantages", ISW analysts believe (Photo: REUTERS/Maxim Shemetov/Pool)
Vladimir Putin's ceasefire counter-demands will not only disarm Ukraine before any peace negotiations but could also allow Russia to resume hostilities under highly favorable conditions, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) wrote on March 13.
ISW analysts highlighted that Putin has effectively dismissed the ceasefire proposal recently agreed upon by the U.S. and Ukraine in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. His alternative proposal with conditions contradicts U.S. President Donald Trump’s stated objective of ensuring a long-term peace in Ukraine.
Putin’s remarks that a ceasefire should “lead to lasting peace and eliminate the root causes” of the war reject a key principle of the U.S.-Ukraine proposal, which stipulated that the 30-day cessation of hostilities should precede official negotiations for a broader end to the war.
By making counter-demands — including restrictions on Ukrainian military mobilization, training, and Western aid supplies — Putin attempted to project military strength by emphasizing Russia’s recent territorial gains in Kursk Oblast and claiming that Russian forces were advancing “almost everywhere” along the front line, ISW analysts noted.
The organization underscores that Putin’s alternative ceasefire proposal directly undermines the intent and goals of the U.S.-Ukraine plan.
The U.S.-Ukraine proposal included:
- A 30-day ceasefire along the entire front line
- A moratorium on long-range missile strikes and drone attacks
- A halt to military operations in the Black Sea
- The possibility to extend the ceasefire
- Continued U.S. intelligence-sharing and military aid to Ukraine.
The ISW report stressed that this proposal was designed to demonstrate both sides’ willingness for peace while keeping the ceasefire separate from broader peace negotiations.
What Putin’s demands mean:
ISW warned that Putin’s ceasefire terms would disproportionately benefit Russia and prepare the ground for renewed hostilities under Kremlin-favorable conditions.
- Putin demands that the U.S. and its allies suspend military aid to Ukraine, while Ukraine halts mobilization and troop training.
- This will effectively begin Ukraine’s disarmament and, if prolonged, prevent the Ukrainian Armed Forces (AFU) from restoring their combat readiness.
- Meanwhile, Russia will continue mobilization, weapons production, and military aid intake from its allies, including North Korea and Iran.
Thus, Putin’s proposal is not about peace — it is designed to freeze Ukraine’s ability to defend itself while allowing Russia to resume large-scale offensives whenever Moscow deems necessary.
Putin himself highlighted that Russian forces are now advancing across multiple frontline sectors, so his demands clearly aim to ensure that Ukraine cannot recover while Russia strengthens its position.
ISW analysts concluded that Putin’s demands expose his true intentions: he is not genuinely interested in peace but rather in creating conditions for a future Russian military escalation.
Contradictions with Trump’s stated intentions:
Putin’s push for an asymmetrically Russia-favorable ceasefire contradicts Trump’s own stated aim — that the ceasefire should set the stage for broader peace negotiations. Instead, Putin’s approach will achieve the opposite:
- It will undermine the U.S. administration’s goal of establishing lasting peace in Ukraine.
- It will reinforce Putin’s belief that Russia can achieve military victory.
- It will incentivize Putin to resume hostilities rather than make any diplomatic concessions.
Putin is using the ceasefire concept as a tool for manipulation, attempting to extract concessions from Ukraine and the West before actual negotiations even begin. His real goal is to secure conditions that would favor Russia’s long-term war objectives, ISW reported.
The analysts reaffirm that Putin remains committed to:
- Installing a pro-Russian puppet regime in Ukraine
- Weakening Ukraine’s ability to defend itself against future Russian aggression
- Preventing Ukraine from joining NATO.
Putin’s rejection of the ceasefire proposal demonstrates his unwavering commitment to these objectives, including the demilitarization of Ukraine.
Kremlin insiders previously hinted that Russia planned to “stall for time” before agreeing to a ceasefire, ensuring that Putin’s conditions were met. Reports from Bloomberg and Verstka suggest that Russia might “formally” accept the ceasefire proposal but attach “impossible conditions” that Ukraine could never agree to — for instance, cutting off all Western arms supplies.
ISW concluded that Putin is not interested in genuine peace negotiations and that his “ceasefire proposal” is nothing more than a strategic ploy to weaken Ukraine before launching new offensives.
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