Klimkin on Assad’s fall and its impact on Russia - interview
In an interview with Radio NV, Ukraine's former Foreign Minister Pavlo Klimkin (2014–2019) analyzed the potential geopolitical impact of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad's regime collapse, including reactions from Russia, the United States, and Europe.
Comparing Russia’s retreat in Syria to U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan
Klimkin noted that Assad’s fall mirrors Russia’s diminishing presence in Syria and likened it to the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan. However, he expressed doubts that this development would significantly embolden Western governments to take decisive steps against Russia’s aggression in Ukraine.
“Unfortunately, I don’t see an understanding of the consequences yet. Many in the West are worried about what happened in Syria,” Klimkin said. He emphasized that while Assad’s regime's collapse marks a positive shift, it raises concerns about regional instability, particularly in Iraq and among the Kurdish population.
Implications for Putin and Russia’s strategy
Klimkin suggested that Assad’s fall may prompt Russian President Vladimir Putin to draw parallels to his own regime’s vulnerabilities. “Putin is likely pondering whether this could happen in his reality,” Klimkin said, though he dismissed the likelihood of drastic purges in Russia's elite.
In the short term, Klimkin predicts Moscow will adopt harsher policies toward Ukraine to project strength. “They need to show they’re still formidable, even if they’ve lost in Syria,” Klimkin explained.
Trump’s perspective on Assad’s collapse
Klimkin also commented on President-elect Donald Trump’s statements regarding Syria, which frame Assad’s fall as a blow to Russia and Iran. Trump has signaled his desire to pause the war in Ukraine and initiate negotiations.
“This is Trump trying to fulfill his promise of a ‘pause.’ He understands that freezing the conflict doesn’t end the war, but it’s a narrative he’s pushing,” Klimkin said. He warned that Russia might exploit a ceasefire to destabilize Ukraine and undermine its European integration.
Risks and opportunities for Ukraine
While Klimkin acknowledged risks in Trump’s approach, he pointed out potential advantages. He urged Ukraine to align itself as an essential partner in Trump’s vision of negotiating from a position of strength. “We must show Trump that our success is tied to his and that our security cooperation is indispensable,” Klimkin stated.
He also highlighted the need for the U.S. to ensure European military and financial support for Ukraine, stressing the importance of continued American leadership in providing intelligence and logistical resources.
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