Russia times mass strikes at Ukraine around diplomacy
Aftermath of a Russian strike on Odesa, Feb. 17 (Photo: REUTERS/Nina Liashonok)
Russian forces have been launching waves of combined drone and missile attacks at Ukraine in recent months in the days before and after peace negotiations but are likely calibrating the scale of strikes in order to avoid upsetting U.S. President Donald Trump, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) suggested in its Feb. 17 report.
Russian forces have consistently launched large strike packages of 400 to 700 drones and missiles in the days right before and after major negotiations in recent months, including the U.S.-Russia Alaska summit last August, the U.S.-Ukraine talks in Geneva in November 2025, the U.S.-Russia talks in Moscow in November 2025, the U.S.-Ukraine-European talks and the U.S.-Russia talks in December 2025, and the two rounds of U.S.-Ukraine-Russia talks in Abu Dhabi in late January and early February 2026.
The largest single attack recorded during this period took place in early September 2025, when Russia launched 823 drones and missiles at Ukraine. While strikes carried out during negotiation periods have been extensive, none have surpassed that record.
The think tank suggests that Moscow may be deliberately curtailing the size of these strike packages to maintain the façade that the Kremlin is interested in meaningful negotiations and to avoid Trump’s ire.
However, if a new "energy truce" is agreed upon during the Feb. 17-18 meetings in Geneva, Russia could use the pause to stockpile drones and missiles for future strikes.
Meanwhile, Russian attacks on Ukraine’s energy and civilian infrastructure remain highly destructive, even when fewer than 500 missiles and drones are launched overnight.
The enemy is also adjusting their strike tactics, combining different types of aerial weapons to maximize damage, particularly against Ukraine’s power grid. In January alone, Russia reportedly launched a record 96 ballistic missiles at Ukraine. While Ukrainian air defence has improved its interception rate, the country continues to face a shortage of Western systems capable of countering ballistic missile threats.
During the night of Feb. 17, Russian forces launched another massive attack targeting Ukraine’s energy sector, firing 29 missiles and 396 strike drones. Ukrainian air defences reportedly shot down 25 missiles and 367 drones. The cities of Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk, Dnipro and Odesa were targeted. Energy company DTEK reported severe damage to infrastructure in Odesa.
The same day, a new round of trilateral negotiations began in Geneva.
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