Russia may face supply issues in Shahed drone manufacturing – ISW
Russia’s production rate of Shahed drones may be declining due to potential supply chain difficulties, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) wrote in its Feb. 12 report.
ISW cited Andriy Kovalenko, head of Ukraine’s Center for Countering Disinformation, who said that the drone factory in Russia’s Alabuga special economic zone (Tatarstan) produced over 6,000 Shahed UAVs and "thousands" of decoy drones in 2024.
However, earlier ISW reports indicated that the plant had already produced 5,760 Shaheds from January to September 2024, suggesting little additional output in the final three months of the year.
Analysts suggest that Russia may be struggling to source enough materials to maintain high production levels, either due to continued dependency on Iran for components or difficulties circumventing Western sanctions to obtain high-tech parts.
Additionally, Russia’s defense industry may be facing domestic production challenges, even when using Iranian manufacturing licenses.
Instead of prioritizing Shahed kamikaze drone production, Moscow appears to be focusing on decoy drones designed to overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses, the ISW report noted.
In late 2024, Ukrainian intelligence reported that half of the drones launched by Russia in October were decoys — UAVs without a warhead, mimicking Shaheds drones to distract Ukraine’s air defense systems.
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