Tomahawks for Ukraine wouldn’t escalate war, could weaken Russia, ISW says
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Supplying U.S. long-range Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine would
not cause a major escalation in the war but would instead mirror Russia’s own
use of long-range cruise missiles, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW)
said in its Oct. 17 report.
The think tank noted that Russian dictator Vladimir Putin
and Kremlin propagandists have repeatedly portrayed potential Tomahawk deliveries
as a major “escalation” in an effort to undermine Western support for Ukraine.
The Kremlin has consistently issued veiled threats — including nuclear
saber-rattling — and even floated economic incentives to dissuade U.S. aid,
such as the proposed Trump–Putin tunnel project.
By contrast, ISW argued that American long-range Tomahawks
could help Ukraine inflict serious damage on key Russian military assets
located deep inside the aggressor state’s territory.
For example, the missiles could successfully strike the
Shahed drone factory in Yelabuga in the Republic of Tatarstan or the Engels‑2
air base in Russia’s Saratov Oblast, from which strategic bombers launch
missile attacks on Ukraine. Such strikes, the report said, could significantly
weaken Russia’s military capability.
ISW explained that Tomahawks can carry a larger payload and
travel faster than Ukraine’s long‑range drones, giving them a higher chance of
penetrating Russian air defenses and causing greater damage to fortified
targets.
Debate over Tomahawk supplies — what’s known
On Oct. 17, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met U.S.
President Donald Trump at the White House. During public remarks, Zelenskyy
reiterated that Ukraine needs Tomahawk missiles and proposed an arms deal with
the United States. Trump, in turn, said he wanted to end the war without
transferring Tomahawks to Ukraine. He also said the U.S. needs those missiles
itself.
Later, Zelenskyy told reporters that Washington and Kyiv
would no longer publicly discuss long‑range weapons and that the United States
does not want escalation.
Axios earlier reported that Trump denied Zelenskyy’s request
for Tomahawks — at least for now — because he considers diplomacy his top
priority. CNN likewise reported that Trump made it “directly and honestly”
clear to Zelenskyy that Ukraine would not receive Tomahawks at this stage.
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