Ukraine slows Russian advance fivefold since fall — ISW
The speed of Russia’s military advance in Ukraine has been steadily declining since November 2024, partially due to successful Ukrainian counterattacks in the east, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) wrote on April 6.
ISW analysts shared a supporting chart and cited figures published by the UK Defense Ministry on April 5. Its estimates indicated that Russian forces captured approximately 143 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory in March 2025, while Ukrainian forces were successfully conducting tactical counterattacks in the Pokrovsk direction.
Based on UK data, the pace of Russian territorial gains has dropped every month since November 2024:
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In November 2024, Russian forces seized approximately 730 sq km
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In December 2024 — 393 sq km
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In January 2025 — 326 sq km
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In February 2025 — 195 sq km
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In March 2025 — 145 sq km.
This means that Russia captured five times less territory in March than in November.
ISW analysts added that confirmed geolocated footage they examined also confirmed that Russia's monthly rate of territorial gain has declined since November 2024.
According to ISW’s geospatial data, Russian forces captured:
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Around 627 sq km in November 2024
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569 sq km in December
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427 sq km in January
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354 sq km in February
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203 sq km in March.
This confirms a threefold decrease in territorial gains from November to March.
ISW noted that the UK Defense Ministry likely used a different methodology or sources for its assessments, but overall, the British report aligns with ISW’s own data showing a steady slowdown in Russian advances over the same period.
“Over the past few weeks, Ukrainian forces have conducted local counterattacks in the Pokrovsk and Toretsk sectors, regaining lost positions and contributing to the Russian gains slowdown in Ukraine,” the analysts concluded.
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