When will Ukraine have its own long-range missiles?
Although Ukraine's Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov recently expressed optimism for the development of a Ukrainian missile with a range of up to 1,000 kilometers, available information suggests that there is still a long way to go, an expert has told NV.
Oleh Katkov, editor-in-chief of the Defense Express military portal, responded to Reznikov's claim that Ukraine has good prospects of getting its own missiles with ranges of over 1,000 kilometers in an interview with NV on June 24.
At the “Big Day with NV. Dialogues on Ukraine's Recovery” event, the minister said that work on developing long-range missiles was being carried out by Ukrainian manufacturers, and that it was a state program.
Katkov shared his own vision of how realistic it is for Ukraine to start producing such missiles as soon as possible.
"Two weeks ago (after Reznikov made his statement), I had a completely different attitude to this," Katkov said.
“It was based on the information available at that time regarding the announced development timeframe for the Ukrainian short-range ballistic missile system Sapsan as of 2020-2021. Back then, it was about 80% readiness, and it was said that the plan was to have a test battery ready by early 2022. I mean a battery, which includes several launchers, loading machines at the division and battery levels, etc. For which funds were allocated and so on.
“However, in a recent interview with Ihor Krol, head of the Western Ukrainian Association of Defense Industry Enterprises, which includes companies involved in the development of the system, he said that the readiness level of the Sapsan system is currently only at 65-70%.
"If that were so, there would be no hope that Ukraine has maximized the work (on the development of the short-range missile system) in the almost one-and-a-half years of war."
However, Katkov suggested that Krol's figures could be deliberate disinformation.
"However, it seems to me that this is an unnecessary illusion, as if this was said to misinform the enemy," the expert added.
“But in the end, Krol probably gives fairly true figures about development, about needs, and about the fact that it is extremely difficult to carry out work of this level during the war. Moreover, he did not even assess the possibility of completing this work, because all of the enterprises in Ukraine are now within range of Russian missiles.”
Katkov also emphasized that even in this case, we would only be talking about the completion of the development of the system.
"But there are astronomical gaps between the existence of the concept, completion and passing of all development tests and mass production," he said.
"However, if the developers rely on the most pragmatic options with the cooperation of all available efforts and all forces, then this (creation of a long-range missile) is realistic," Katkov said.
“But if it is still at the conceptual stage, then this is a completely different situation and a completely different timeframe.”
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