Why autumn Russian strikes are already cutting power, subway runs, and water in Kyiv — NV
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Railway workers are cleaning up the rails and metro station after the Russian strike, Oct. 19 (Photo: REUTERS/Valentyn Ogirenko)
Winter has yet to arrive, but Kyiv is already reeling from cascading blackouts and transit halts because Russian strikes destroyed all internal power generation, experts told NV on Nov. 3.
Following relentless bombardments throughout October, Ukrainians are entering November with widespread electrical outages. Fresh blackouts struck on the morning of Nov. 2, with power interruptions documented across multiple oblasts. In Kyiv and Kyiv Oblast, authorities instituted emergency blackouts and restricted train service across the metro's Red and Green lines for several hours due to severe voltage fluctuations.
"Our energy system remains in a perpetual state of crisis throughout the war," Volodymyr Omelchenko, Director of Energy Programs at the Razumkov Centre, told NV. He emphasized that Russian strikes on energy infrastructure have historically intensified with the onset of autumn, making the systemic crisis far more acute. According to Omelchenko, this state of severe strain will persist until the conclusion of the heating season.
In October alone, Russian forces deployed more than 4,000 turbojet-powered strike drones, approximately 150 ballistic missiles, and 80 cruise and air-launched guided missiles against targets across Ukraine.
Oleksandr Kharchenko, Director of the Energy Industry Research Center, noted that beyond direct bombardments, the primary vulnerability facing domestic utilities is financial: absent international financial assistance, the national grid simply could not operate. "However, from an engineering and technical standpoint, I currently see no basis for a total systemic collapse," he clarified.
Turbojet Drone Tactics
The latest trial for domestic energy infrastructure stems from tactical shifts in Russian air assaults, which now concentrate less on large thermal generation facilities and more heavily on the electricity distribution system — specifically high-voltage regional substations.
Recent modifications to Geran-type turbojet loitering munitions have allowed Russian forces — as documented by analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) — to focus cruise and ballistic missile salvos against a tighter, more specific roster of targets without needing to drastically expand missile production volumes. Furthermore, the high-speed loitering munitions themselves are now conducting precision strikes directly against electrical grid nodes.
Military Intelligence of Ukraine (HUR) previously explained to NV that Russian assembly plants are manufacturing approximately 4,000 turbojet-powered strike drones per month, with production lines engineered for rapid scaling. Russian planners have prioritized the Geran-4 and Geran-5 variants, which achieve speeds of 400–500 km/h (approx. 250–310 mph) — vastly outperforming older propeller-driven platforms.
While these turbojet drones are significantly more expensive and assembled in smaller batches than standard Shahed units, their elevated velocities make them exceptionally difficult for mobile fire teams to track and intercept, according to military analyst and aviation historian Mykhailo Zhyrokhov. Consequently, air defense networks can no longer reliably neutralize 80% to 90% of incoming aerial threats as they did earlier. This tactical evolution proved lethal in October, enabling Geran-4 and Geran-5 munitions to strike numerous key energy installations, Zhyrokhov added.
Omelchenko from the Razumkov Centre expects the enemy to expand the deployment of these weapons. "They have no plans to curtail their military expenditures," he emphasized.
New Targets in the Crosshairs
According to Omelchenko, executing repair operations has grown increasingly hazardous for energy technicians. Russian forces routinely conduct repeat strikes on targeted facilities, while persistent air raid alerts triggered by loitering drones force utility crews into bomb shelters.
"How does Russia operate? They strike a facility, repair crews deploy to the scene, and then another strike follows to disrupt restoration work and prolong outages," the analyst explained. "This is a deliberate, methodical strategy to demolish Ukrainian infrastructure."
Kharchenko agreed with that assessment: "This is a massive operational challenge. Regrettably, short of upgrading air defense systems and reducing the volume of drones penetrating the airspace, there are simply no alternative remedies."
Meanwhile, Prime Minister Serhii Koretskyi outlined emerging threats facing the population: in an interview with BBC News Ukraine, he warned that Russian forces have intensified attacks against municipal water supply infrastructure servicing Kyiv, cautioning that citizens must brace for "stark domestic hardships" this winter.
Nevertheless, analysts argue that the most acute systemic hazard remains the disruption of power and central district heating across major urban centers.
"This primarily threatens the substations and high-voltage transmission lines operated by Ukrenergo and regional distribution operators, which channel electricity from generating power plants into metropolitan areas and industrial hubs," Omelchenko stated.
Kharchenko underscored that municipal electricity, water, and district heating operate as an integrated network. "Broadly speaking, one cannot say the Russians have developed distinct operational playbooks tailored solely to water distribution. Are there contingency playbooks targeting district heating? They are possible. But today, the primary vectors remain electric power supplies, high-voltage transmission grids, and generation capacity," he added.
Both experts agreed that the most precarious grid conditions are concentrated in frontline oblasts — Sumy, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhya, and Kherson oblasts — as well as the major metropolitan hubs of Dnipro, Odesa, and Kyiv.
DTEK confirmed that the operational stability of the capital region's power network degraded further following a repeat Russian strike against a major combined heat and power plant on Oct. 30, compounding earlier damages. The energy operator noted that Kyiv retains zero internal generation capacity: in mid-October, Russian strikes once again hit all three municipal combined heat and power plants servicing Kyiv — CHP-4, CHP-5, and CHP-6. These same facilities were repeatedly targeted last winter.
According to Kharchenko, Kyiv is far more vulnerable to strikes on external high-voltage transmission lines this year because Russian ballistic missile salvos destroyed the entirety of the capital's internal generation capacity in January 2026.
"Kyiv consumes between 1 and 2 gigawatts depending on seasonal weather, and previously maintained approximately 1.3 gigawatts of internal generating capacity — all of which was wiped out in January by ballistic missile strikes," the analyst explained.
"Consequently, Kyiv now feels every strike against the external high-voltage substations that route electricity into the city. Nothing extraordinary or unforeseen is taking place."
Availability of internal generation earlier allowed engineers to reroute municipal transit, the subway system, and water utilities to internal circuits virtually instantaneously and imperceptibly to residents. Today, that flexibility is gone, requiring continuous, manual failovers to emergency backup diesel generators.
Kharchenko pointed to municipal water pumping stations equipped with industrial diesel generators. While functional, backup generators lack the electrical capacity to supply running water to all apartment buildings serviced by the stations under normal conditions. Overcoming this shortfall demands substantially higher electrical throughput that could not physically be installed in a single off-season.
"If everyone works intensively, we could enter next winter with fully redundant backup systems for municipal water utilities and most electric surface transit," Kharchenko concluded.
"However, this coming winter will unfold strictly within the constrained operational conditions we face right now."
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