We have to persevere in the coming months

31 January, 04:50 PM
Kramatorsk (Photo:www.facebook.com/alexander.vasilyevich.goncharenko)

Kramatorsk (Photo:www.facebook.com/alexander.vasilyevich.goncharenko)

Why did the West start talking about the two or three weeks that would determine the course of the war?

The near future is unlikely to be decisive, though I still dwell on the fact that the coming months will be decisive for Ukraine, as the President of Poland Andrzej Duda first said.

The fact is that today the Russian Federation is trying to resume its offensive in the eastern direction — in the Donbas. And this will be the most decisive act. Right now, the Russians have conducted a wave of mobilization, and are starting a second wave gradually, but not fully and on a large scale just yet. So this battle will be decisive in the further development of the war.

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The conflict will simply move into the frozen and protracted phase

If Russia has at least partial success in seizing the Donetsk and Luhansk regions within the administrative borders, it will allow Putin to sell such a victory to the public. By the way, there is information from Russian sources that Putin allegedly set a deadline for the commander of the combined forces of Russia in Ukraine, Valery Gerasimov, and Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, when he restored them to the leadership of the operation, to capture Donetsk and Luhansk regions within the administrative boundaries borders by April. If Russia will be partially successful in this, it will allow Putin to sell it to the public as a victory. And then to force the Russian society to go to the military commissariat, to raise the second wave of mobilization and to prepare the army for the further advance into Ukraine and capturing of our state.

If we will come through in this defensive operation and inflict the maximum defeat on the Russian troops, we would have a chance to counter-attack with the main goal of liberating our territories. Within the near future, Russia will try to resume the offensive, that’s why everyone says that these months are decisive and critical for Ukraine. We either win or lose. Moreover, the defeat is not final, but the conflict will simply move into the frozen and protracted phase, Putin will get some advantages, will form a new army, then there will be some kind of break, and after some time he will resume the offensive.

Regarding a possible offensive from Belarus: I understand that they did not quite succeed with the first wave of mobilization, or they did not mobilize enough to carry out all their plans. Today, we already have information that they are withdrawing their troops from Belarus and transferring them to Donbas. There will be no other directions. Probably, the main direction will be in the Donetsk region, and the auxiliary direction may be in the Zaporizhzhya region, if Russia has enough resources, especially ammunition for artillery, heavy equipment and weapons for the troops. Because for them, everything is already in deficit.

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