Timothy Ash

No NATO, big risk /

Kellogg – Is there actually a plan for Ukraine?

Implementing the Kellogg-Flays position paper could halt the flow of investments into Ukraine. Timothy Ash, UK Economist, covering Emerging Europe, Middle East and Africa, gives his opinion. Published with author’s permission. Original here.

G7 was about getting Russia to negotiate – opinion

My read of the G7 summit in Hiroshima was that Ukraine and the West were determined to send a message to Putin to negotiate or else face inevitable defeat.

Ukraine - Reconstruction, reparations and the outlook — opinion

Discussions are already underway on the topic of the looming Ukraine reconstruction conference due to be held in London in June, 2023. The conference is a continuation of the first similar conference held last summer in Lugano which aimed to focus minds on the challenge of both ensuring Ukraine has the financial resources to fund the war effort but also beginning to think about winning the peace thru ensuring succesful post war reconstruction.

Ukraine’s new IMF deal is important – opinion

Over the past week the IMF announced a major package of support for Ukraine, with the unveiling of a $15.6bn 48-month Extended Financing Facility (EFF). This was part of a broader package of support for Ukraine agreed by international donors totalling around $115bn for the period through to 2027.

Time is not on Putin’s side

Is the world facing systemic crisis?

As the IMF meetings kick off this week I  read thru the IMF’s latest WEO and it really made for grim reading.

Saudi - US, a defining moment in the relationship?

It’s interesting to hear people arguing in Saudi Arabia’s defence, that in leading OPEC to oil production cuts, it is just acting in its own economic self interest. And that everyone does that. Fair comment if only this were a crisis around very narrow economic self interest. But it is not. It is not about Saudi getting an extra $10 a barrel on oil, and real GDP growing an extra 0.5%, and the US and West suffering the inverse losses in a zero sum economic game. 

Zelenskyy Says Liberating Settlements Is a Trend

Ukrainians forces are again taking striking amounts of territory, particularly around Kherson this time - it feels a bit like the situation around Kharkiv thru to Izyum again.

Putin Raises Gas Pressure as He Moves to Annex Ukraine Lands

Seems to me that Putin is now acting quite logically.

Good Cop Bad Cop, Dictator Edition

We saw classic Putin playing the good cop, then bad cop routine.

European energy crisis is a globally systemic event

Just did another Gulf TV gig - I would not normally do them, but they always come on with typically pro-Russian/anti-Western angles that I feel almost compelled to set the record straight and to give the alternative view to the Gulf/Middle East audience.

Big picture takeouts from Russia’s war on Ukraine

More than six months into the all-out war now being waged by Russia against Ukraine and while we might not be able to predict the endgame I think we can draw some broad conclusions

Ukraine - prospects for peace?

The Erdogan - Zelensky meeting in Lviv has brought some optimism that substantive peace talks between Russia and Ukraine could be in the offing.

West is short-changing Ukraine

Ukraine received some good news this week, receiving the backing of private sector bondholders to give Ukraine a 24-month debt service freeze.

Ukraine - is the tide turning against Putin, again?

I thought it worth updating my thoughts on Ukraine, and particularly where this war is going as the duration and ultimate damage done by the conflict will be key to understanding the longer-term economic story in Ukraine - the rebuilding demands. 

Putin's last chance

A few thoughts about the recent Nord Stream 1 situation and European gas.

Ukraine’s default would be a victory for Putin

Feels like Ukraine is going to sink into default here as an afterthought. Because no one thought through the consequences to the full. 

Russia sanctions - why, what, how and where?

There has been much action on the sanctions front since Russia’s all-out-attempted invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022.

Turkey plays a delicate balancing act between Ukraine, Russia and NATO

Turks are rightly proud of the success of Bayraktar drones in the conflict in Ukraine.

Don’t believe the media hype that this is the first Russian default since 1918

That’s just stretching the reality. As someone who was there in 1998, working in Russian markets, I can assure you that Russia defaulted in 1998. Absolutely, no doubt. 100%.