Ukraine and different perspectives on burden-sharing
I have been on a few panels and investor sessions in recent weeks on the economic outlook for Ukraine.
The Ukrainian side have presented their ideas for a potential peace, including agreement to give up on NATO membership, accept neutral status but in exchange for security guarantees from meaningful Western military powers, the US, UK, France, Turkey and Germany (?), plus also pushing the issues of Crimea and LPR out into the long grass.
It’s kind of interesting that Russia feels so "threatened" by NATO enlargement, but the experience over the past 30 years is that as NATO has gone through successive waves of enlargement, its conventional military capability has reduced and eroded.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has moved to escalate tensions with Ukraine, putting a huge and unprecedented Russian military force on its western border while also launching a concerted “coercive” diplomatic effort sketching out new red lines for NATO.
Zelensky yesterday was trying to calm the nation advising that war is not going to happen as he is working flat out on diplomacy. His message of calm and reassurance was totally understandable – and in the national interest, given the threat.
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