Timothy Ash

Ukraine and different perspectives on burden-sharing

I have been on a few panels and investor sessions in recent weeks on the economic outlook for Ukraine.

21 May 2022, 10:16 AM 465

Putin is losing, let him lose

I guess we are all now just realizing what an epic defeat Putin’s war in Ukraine really has been for the Russian President and Russia.

19 May 2022, 10:29 AM 6005

Lots of questions about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and what it means for both countries

So I thought that I might answer these in a Q&A format for my own ease.

9 May 2022, 01:31 PM 411

Russia - why the change of heart by OFAC on the default question?

Still not getting any joy/feedback on why the Office of Foreign Assets Control seemed to blink around the Russia default.

7 May 2022, 10:39 AM 560

Putin the loser

Initially, after the news that Gazprom was cutting off gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria, and then warnings of escalation/false flag operations in Transdniestr, I thought oh this is really worrying, Putin is escalating.

28 April 2022, 04:57 PM 1290

Putin’s next move?

It feels like Putin is going back to Plan B, or C, which is scaling back his ambitions for Ukraine, from taking the whole of the country, to taking Donbas, and securing a land bridge to Crimea – hence the importance of Mariupol, which is on the way.

23 April 2022, 06:31 PM 839

Putin’s May 9th victory deadline. What is his plan?

Guess Putin trying to sell the idea of a Russian "win" in Mariupol.

21 April 2022, 08:16 PM 720

Ukraine's Economy to Shrink by 45% Because of War, World Bank says. All finger in the air stuff in reality

No one actually knows.

12 April 2022, 03:13 PM 355

How Russia’s default would look like

Putin will need to think long and hard now whether he wants to avoid a formal default on external debt, which will have negative consequences for the Russian economy for years to come.

6 April 2022, 12:49 PM 361

Is Putin on the brink of an extraordinary defeat?

The Ukrainian side have presented their ideas for a potential peace, including agreement to give up on NATO membership, accept neutral status but in exchange for security guarantees from meaningful Western military powers, the US, UK, France, Turkey and Germany (?), plus also pushing the issues of Crimea and LPR out into the long grass.

29 March 2022, 08:03 PM 1361

Even if Russia takes the Donbas, war in Ukraine will still be a huge failure for the Kremlin

I’ve been getting lots of queries around the latest developments of Russia’s war against Ukraine, so I thought I would put my points down in Q&A format.

27 March 2022, 06:56 PM 1240

Decision time for Putin

Russia is losing in Ukraine. Bad tactics, crap equipment, and inexperienced troops suffering low morale fighting in a country which they are quickly realizing is not theirs is a recipe for a military disaster.

17 March 2022, 12:06 PM 1985

So the war is here. What still can be done

Sad to say that my base line scenario which I have held since the US intel warnings in November is playing out - I have warned of a defining Russo-Ukraine war since 2015. And that war is happening.

24 February 2022, 01:46 PM 1206

What to make of the Putin - Lavrov - Shoigu recent sessions?

Well forget about what was said, look at the tables. It’s really crazy but we are back to early 1980s Soviet studies, Kremlinology, trying to look at settings, for messaging as to what is going on.

17 February 2022, 09:26 AM 243

Fake NATO threat: What is Putin actually afraid of?

It’s kind of interesting that Russia feels so "threatened" by NATO enlargement, but the experience over the past 30 years is that as NATO has gone through successive waves of enlargement, its conventional military capability has reduced and eroded.

5 February 2022, 11:23 AM 653

Russia-Ukraine crisis: A headline grabbing day

Lots of moving parts in the evolving crisis around Russia and Ukraine, and lots of headlines that are likely to be subject to misinterpretation by markets, and all around.

30 January 2022, 02:58 PM 160

What Putin won and what he lost escalating on Ukrainian borders

Russian President Vladimir Putin has moved to escalate tensions with Ukraine, putting a huge and unprecedented Russian military force on its western border while also launching a concerted “coercive” diplomatic effort sketching out new red lines for NATO.

25 January 2022, 11:04 PM 288

Biden lets the cat out of the bag

Zelensky yesterday was trying to calm the nation advising that war is not going to happen as he is working flat out on diplomacy. His message of calm and reassurance was totally understandable – and in the national interest, given the threat.

20 January 2022, 06:45 PM 339

Putin is preparing for war

I have certainly put myself out there as having the most hawkish view on Russia (compared to the street consensus), but I still find it difficult to see anything but escalation by Russia with Ukraine from the current postures.

17 January 2022, 04:30 PM 236