Timothy Ash

UK Economist, covering Emerging Europe, Middle East and Africa.

Timothy Ash

Russia’s neighbors are worried

For obvious reasons all the focus has been on Ukraine but risks seem to be building around its borders - and unsure here whether this is because of Russia. The cynic in me talking here but there is rarely smoke without Russian fire in the region.

22 June 2022, 02:53 PM 838

Ukraine should not have to pay for this war

Ukrainians are defying overwhelming odds and standing up to Russian aggression.

13 June 2022, 09:13 AM 664

Moscow is playing PR game over grain exports

It’s painful watching the Turks trying to negotiate with Russia to create some kind of grain export corridor out of Ukrainian ports. 

8 June 2022, 02:26 PM 310

Environmental, Social and Governance & the War in Ukraine

I have been asked numerous times how far increased focus on Environmental, Social and Governance(ESG) considerations input into my out-of-consensus call that Russia would invade Ukraine back in late 2021, and then the eventual invasion in February 2022.

27 May 2022, 02:57 PM 433

Ukraine and different perspectives on burden-sharing

I have been on a few panels and investor sessions in recent weeks on the economic outlook for Ukraine. 

21 May 2022, 10:16 AM 521

Putin is losing, let him lose

I guess we are all now just realizing what an epic defeat Putin’s war in Ukraine really has been for the Russian President and Russia.

19 May 2022, 10:29 AM 6063

Lots of questions about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and what it means for both countries

So I thought that I might answer these in a Q&A format for my own ease.

9 May 2022, 01:31 PM 435

Russia - why the change of heart by OFAC on the default question?

Still not getting any joy/feedback on why the Office of Foreign Assets Control seemed to blink around the Russia default.

7 May 2022, 10:39 AM 583

Putin the loser

Initially, after the news that Gazprom was cutting off gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria, and then warnings of escalation/false flag operations in Transdniestr, I thought oh this is really worrying, Putin is escalating.

28 April 2022, 04:57 PM 1333

Putin’s next move?

It feels like Putin is going back to Plan B, or C, which is scaling back his ambitions for Ukraine, from taking the whole of the country, to taking Donbas, and securing a land bridge to Crimea – hence the importance of Mariupol, which is on the way.

23 April 2022, 06:31 PM 886

Putin’s May 9th victory deadline. What is his plan?

Guess Putin trying to sell the idea of a Russian "win" in Mariupol.

21 April 2022, 08:16 PM 736

Ukraine's Economy to Shrink by 45% Because of War, World Bank says. All finger in the air stuff in reality

No one actually knows. 

12 April 2022, 03:13 PM 396

How Russia’s default would look like

Putin will need to think long and hard now whether he wants to avoid a formal default on external debt, which will have negative consequences for the Russian economy for years to come.

6 April 2022, 12:49 PM 382

Is Putin on the brink of an extraordinary defeat?

The Ukrainian side have presented their ideas for a potential peace, including agreement to give up on NATO membership, accept neutral status but in exchange for security guarantees from meaningful Western military powers, the US, UK, France, Turkey and Germany (?), plus also pushing the issues of Crimea and LPR out into the long grass. 

29 March 2022, 08:03 PM 1393

Even if Russia takes the Donbas, war in Ukraine will still be a huge failure for the Kremlin

I’ve been getting lots of queries around the latest developments of Russia’s war against Ukraine, so I thought I would put my points down in Q&A format.

27 March 2022, 06:56 PM 1290

Decision time for Putin

Russia is losing in Ukraine. Bad tactics, crap equipment, and inexperienced troops suffering low morale fighting in a country which they are quickly realizing is not theirs is a recipe for a military disaster.

17 March 2022, 12:06 PM 2047

So the war is here. What still can be done

Sad to say that my base line scenario which I have held since the US intel warnings in November is playing out - I have warned of a defining Russo-Ukraine war since 2015. And that war is happening.

24 February 2022, 01:46 PM 1219

What to make of the Putin - Lavrov - Shoigu recent sessions?

Well forget about what was said, look at the tables. It’s really crazy but we are back to early 1980s Soviet studies, Kremlinology, trying to look at settings, for messaging as to what is going on. 

17 February 2022, 09:26 AM 295

Fake NATO threat: What is Putin actually afraid of?

It’s kind of interesting that Russia feels so "threatened" by NATO enlargement, but the experience over the past 30 years is that as NATO has gone through successive waves of enlargement, its conventional military capability has reduced and eroded.

5 February 2022, 11:23 AM 703

Russia-Ukraine crisis: A headline grabbing day

Lots of moving parts in the evolving crisis around Russia and Ukraine, and lots of headlines that are likely to be subject to misinterpretation by markets, and all around.

30 January 2022, 02:58 PM 166