Putin prepares secret rolling draft amid failing economy
Russia aims to avoid full mobilization but needs to compensate its frontline losses (Photo: REUTERS/Sergey Pivovarov)
Russian dictator Vladimir Putin is preparing for a limited, rolling draft of reservists to compensate for heavy enemy losses in Ukraine without declaring full mobilization, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) wrote on Feb. 18.
Russian State Duma passed a bill in its first reading on Feb. 18 to strengthen preventive measures against 'evading the duty to defend the country.' The document gives Moscow the power to punish Russians criticizing the draft. Russia also banned Telegram, likely attempting to restrict government criticism.
Putin aims to normalize this limited draft to maintain the army's size without repeating the 2022 mass mobilization, which caused up to 900,000 Russians to flee the country. The draft will only sustain the current level of frontline losses, not reinforce the enemy army with additional troops.
Secret draft preparations since Oct. 2025
The Kremlin has been setting conditions for a phased, forced reservist draft since October 2025, when the government allowed deploying reservists on expeditionary missions abroad without declaring mobilization or martial law.
Putin signed a decree in November enabling year-round drafting by military enlistment offices. In December, the dictator approved a mandatory call-up of reservists for 'military training' in 2026, likely to secretly draft his strategic reserve.
The Kremlin is preparing to forcefully draft reservists from a 'position of weakness' to compensate for the near-total exhaustion of its expensive volunteer recruitment system in 2026. Putin continues to balance 'guns and butter' — preventing mass discontent over full mobilization while maintaining the offensive pace and preserving the civilian and defense-industrial workforce.
"The Kremlin’s efforts to prepare Russian society for a partial reservist call-up indicate that Putin now, in February 2026... faces difficult choices," the ISW noted. Moscow is likely pressuring Ukraine to immediately concede in peace talks to achieve its military goals without making uncomfortable domestic sacrifices.
Russian enemy losses on Feb. 6
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Feb. 6 that the aggressor loses 30,000 to 35,000 soldiers killed and severely wounded every month. While Russia continues to recruit 40,000 personnel monthly, not all are sent to the frontline.
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