Ukraine achieved surprise by blinding Russian forces and disrupting logistics
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Footage of the fighting during Operation Vivaldi (Photo: 3rd Army Corps)
Operational surprise has been a key factor in Ukraine’s ongoing Operation Vivaldi counteroffensive in northern Donetsk Oblast, with Ukrainian forces using strict operational security, electronic warfare and strikes on Russian logistics to reduce Moscow’s battlefield awareness, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in its Sept. 17 assessment.
ISW said the operation in the Lyman sector demonstrates Ukraine’s growing ability to restore elements of tactical maneuver warfare on a battlefield increasingly dominated by drones.
Ukrainian forces achieved operational surprise through rigorous operational security, or OPSEC, combined with counter-drone operations that degraded Russian forces’ ability to understand developments on the battlefield, the analysts said.
Third Army Corps Deputy Commander Maj. Maksym Zhorin said on Sept. 16 that “one of the very important aspects” behind the success of Operation Vivaldi was maintaining complete information silence around the counteroffensive.
That secrecy “made it possible to mislead the enemy’s military leadership,” Zhorin said.
Ukrainian troops were also able to conceal their advances with the help of a system known as Protective Dome, which combines multiple electronic warfare systems.
The system disrupted around 20,000 Russian drone missions during the operation, according to the Third Army Corps.
“We were able to create a kind of curtain, a wall made by our electronic warfare units, through which enemy unmanned systems in some areas simply could not penetrate at all,” Zhorin said.
ISW noted that Ukrainian forces have previously used OPSEC measures effectively to achieve operational surprise.
During Ukraine’s spring 2026 counteroffensive in the Oleksandrivka sector, Ukrainian troops deliberately conducted flag-raising missions at safe distances in an effort to conceal the actual extent of their advances and new positions, the analysts said.
Ukraine’s ability to achieve surprise in two recent counteroffensive operations is particularly significant, ISW said.
The think tank assessed that the Russian military’s “pervasive culture of lying” likely further degrades its operational awareness, contributing to tactical and operational mistakes based on inaccurate assessments of the battlefield.
Operation Vivaldi, meanwhile, shows Ukrainian progress in restoring elements of tactical-level maneuver warfare, according to ISW.
Strikes on Russian logistics help Ukraine gain drone advantage
Another important factor in Ukraine’s advances has been preparatory operations and an intermediate-range strike campaign that degraded Russian electronic warfare capabilities, ISW said.
The Third Army Corps and its commander, Brig. Gen. Andrii Biletskyi, said systematic Ukrainian strikes on Russian logistics, particularly in occupied Luhansk Oblast, disrupted fuel deliveries to frontline units.
The strikes reduced Russia’s ability to operate both drones and electronic warfare equipment used to protect its forces from Ukrainian UAVs.
Electronic warfare systems require substantial amounts of power, while Russian troops frequently rely on diesel generators to operate them, ISW noted.
Ukraine’s campaign against fuel supplies and other Russian logistics therefore directly contributed to suppressing Russian EW capabilities.
That, in turn, helped Ukrainian forces establish a tactical advantage in drone operations supporting mechanized advances in the Lyman sector, ISW said.
The Third Army Corps previously said its drone units interdicted Russian logistics in two stages — initially striking targets up to 50 kilometers (31 miles) behind the front before expanding operations to depths of around 120 kilometers (75 miles).
The campaign reportedly forced Russian troops to shut down a fuel pipeline running from Russia into occupied Luhansk Oblast, relocate support elements of the 144th Motorized Rifle Division from occupied Ukraine to Russia’s Voronezh Oblast and disperse fuel and ammunition depots, communications hubs, command posts and transport assets.
Ukraine disrupts Russian plan to encircle Donbas ‘Fortress Belt’
ISW also published a map illustrating what it assesses was Russia’s plan for a wide encirclement of Ukraine’s major fortified cities in Donetsk Oblast.
The plan envisioned northern and southern pincers attempting to surround the Slovyansk, Kramatorsk, Druzhkivka and Kostyantynivka urban agglomerations.
Biletskyi said on Sept. 17 that Operation Vivaldi had already destroyed the northern arm of that plan, although the counteroffensive remains ongoing.
“The Russians had a plan in the Donetsk direction — to envelop the so-called fortress cities from the north and south,” Biletskyi said.
The southern pincer was intended to advance through the Dobropillya area, while the northern one was supposed to move through the salient now being reduced by Ukrainian forces toward Sviatohirsk and then Barvinkove in Kharkiv Oblast.
The two Russian pincers were ultimately intended to meet around Barvinkove, Biletskyi said.
Russian infiltration in the Dobropillya sector was stopped last year, although the situation there has again become difficult but remains under control, he added.
“The northern pincer has effectively been defeated and destroyed,” Biletskyi said.
He stressed that Ukraine now needs to prevent Russian forces from restoring their offensive capabilities, making continued disruption of Russian rear areas and logistics particularly important.
The collapse of the northern encirclement attempt means Russian forces would instead have to attack the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk and Druzhkivka-Kostyantynivka urban areas more directly, Biletskyi said.
ISW similarly assessed that Ukraine’s gains north of Lyman have rendered Russia’s already ambitious plan for a wide encirclement of the “Fortress Belt” from both north and south unfeasible.
Operation Vivaldi — what is known
Biletskyi publicly confirmed Operation Vivaldi on Sept. 15, revealing that Ukrainian forces were conducting a counteroffensive against the Russian salient north of Lyman.
According to the Third Army Corps, Ukrainian troops have cleared 75 square kilometers (29 square miles) of Russian infiltration and liberated another 10 square kilometers (3.9 square miles) of occupied territory.
The operation has included the liberation of Serednie and the clearing of Russian forces from Novoselivka, Yarova, Oleksandrivka and areas around Korovii Yar.
The Third Army Corps said Russian losses during this stage of the operation amounted to about 1,500 troops, more than 12,000 drones and hundreds of armored vehicles, artillery systems and other vehicles. Those figures have not been independently verified.
Ukrainian drone units have also cut Russian logistics routes, the corps said, with strikes forcing some Russian fuel and lubricant supply operations to relocate outside occupied Ukraine and into Voronezh Oblast.
ISW has assessed that Operation Vivaldi has already achieved an operationally significant objective by disrupting Russia’s attempt to conduct a wide encirclement of Ukraine’s Donbas Fortress Belt.
The counteroffensive is continuing, and Biletskyi said Ukraine could expect “good news” as the operation develops.
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