Putin’s commanders inflate Russian gains as Ukraine offensive slows, ISW finds
Russian dictator Vladimir Putin is relying on false maps from Russia’s Defense Ministry showing the occupiers’ advances on the front line. (Photo: REUTERS/Turar Kazangapov)
Russia’s military command regularly shows dictator Vladimir
Putin exaggerated data on Russian advances at the front in Ukraine, prompting
the Kremlin leader to make increasingly unrealistic demands in peace talks, the
Institute for the Study of War said
on May 28.
ISW analyzed a Russian front-line map published online that
sharply exaggerates Russia’s “successes” on the battlefield. The map is likely
an official Russian Defense Ministry map dated April 9, which Ukrainian
cartographers shared on X.
The institute’s analysts believe the map may be authentic.
It depicts Russian forces as having captured Primorske, Stepnohirsk, Richne,
Veselyanka, Zaporozhets, Zapasne, Mali Shcherbaky and Shcherbaky, west of
Orikhiv; the southwestern part of Orikhiv up to the railway; and Novodanylivka,
Mala Tokmachka and Bilohirya in Zaporizhzhya Oblast. The published map aligns
with statements made in April by Valery Gerasimov, chief of the General Staff
of Russia’s Armed Forces, who exaggerated Russian battlefield gains in the
Zaporizhzhya sector.
As of April 9, ISW had found no evidence that Russian forces
had entered or advanced in Orikhiv, Richne, Veselyanka, Zaporozhets or Zapasne.
As of May 28, ISW had also recorded no Russian military presence in Richne,
Veselyanka or Zapasne. Analysts said Russian troops were about three kilometers
from Orikhiv — Russia’s operational objective in this sector since 2022.
Analysts see the exaggeration of Russian battlefield gains
as part of a broader pattern of distorting the real situation on the
battlefield at the highest levels. That pattern is reflected, among other
things, in Gerasimov’s repeated claims that Russia had captured Kupyansk in
Kharkiv Oblast, which remains under the control of Ukraine’s defense forces.
Pro-war Russian milbloggers have repeatedly criticized the Kremlin and Russia’s
military command for lying about the battlefield situation.
The distorted picture is likely leading Putin to believe
that his forces can achieve their combat objectives in the near and medium
term. At the same time, ISW has recorded a decline in the effectiveness of
Russia’s offensive in 2026. According to the report, Russian forces have
advanced in Donetsk Oblast at a rate of 2.63 square kilometers per day since
the start of the year, capturing only 104 square kilometers as of May 26,
compared with 1,619 square kilometers occupied during the same period in 2025.
“Russia’s military command is likely trying to create a more
optimistic picture of Russian advances to conceal the true pace of the
offensive’s slowdown. It regularly shows Putin such exaggerated maps, giving
him a false picture of the front line and the scale of the Russian offensive,
which likely prompts him to make increasingly unrealistic demands,” ISW said in
its analysis.
In April, Gerasimov claimed that Russian forces had
allegedly captured more than 1,700 square kilometers and 80 settlements in
Ukraine since the start of 2026. ISW disputed those claims, saying Russian
forces had actually advanced only 381.5 square kilometers and captured 13
settlements as of April 21.
The military war may be swinging in our favor, but the information war continues.
Just as an army needs soldiers, so does a free society need its journalists to ensure that people have access to honest, trustworthy voices to understand the world around them.
For the past five years, The New Voice of Ukraine has been working tirelessly to push back against Russian narratives and defend democracy. But we cannot do it alone.
Please consider supporting us on Patreon for just $5 a month – your donation does directly to supporting journalists and ensuring that this front of the infowar says solid and defended.
Thank you.
Follow us on Twitter, Facebook and Google News
