How Russia mass-produces drones for war in Ukraine
Anatoliy Khrapchynskyi, an aviation expert and former officer of Ukraine’s Air Force, has analyzed how Russia is rapidly expanding its drone production and enhancing its capabilities.
Anatolii Khrapchynskyi, aviation expert and former officer in Ukraine’s Air Force, analyzes how Russia is developing its drone production and improving its UAV capabilities.
Six months ago, Russia significantly increased the intensity of drone attacks on Ukrainian territory. Since then, nearly every night, at least a hundred Russian drones target civilian areas across Ukraine.
In early March, Major General Vadym Skibitskyi, deputy head of Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence (HUR), revealed that Russia plans to ramp up drone production, aiming to launch 500 unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) at Ukraine simultaneously.
To understand the current state and future of Russia’s drone industry, NV spoke with Anatolii Khrapchynskyi, an aviation expert, former Ukrainian Air Force officer, and now deputy director at a military-tech company.
How has Russia’s drone industry evolved?
Khrapchynskyi: First, it’s important to note that Russia’s drone industry dates back to the 2008 Russo-Georgian war, when Moscow realized the need for reconnaissance drones. While they didn't achieve much at the time, work in this area had already begun.
By 2014-2015, during the invasion of Donbas, Russia started using UAVs for artillery targeting. However, the most significant advancements came after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
There are a few reasons for this. First, Ukrainian forces effectively used both reconnaissance and strike drones, pushing Russia to respond. Second, after Russia lost two A-50 long-range radar detection aircraft in early 2024, it could no longer monitor deep into Ukrainian territory. To compensate, Moscow had to scale up drone reconnaissance efforts.
Russia’s most successful combat drone is the Shahed, which they began mass-producing after acquiring full design documentation. They’ve also modified and upgraded the drone extensively.
Another key development is FPV drones. While Russia can manufacture these UAVs domestically, they heavily rely on Chinese components—including engines, video transmitters, and flight controllers. However, China provides direct access to large-scale manufacturing, allowing Russia to import essential components in bulk. In this way, China plays a crucial role in supporting Russia’s drone production.
Why is Russia able to expand drone production so easily?
The biggest challenge is that when Russia acquires a new technology—whether from China, Iran, or by capturing Ukrainian drones—it doesn’t just replicate it, it scales up mass production.
Unlike in Ukraine, where private companies drive drone innovation, Russia follows a Soviet-era model, where state-controlled enterprises, now largely owned by oligarchs, oversee mass production.
This top-down approach allows Moscow to scale up manufacturing quickly.
For example, last summer, Vladimir Putin publicly announced a major push for drone warfare. Within months, Russia drastically increased drone launches against Ukraine—including both Shahed strike drones and decoy UAVs like the Gerbera and Parody models.
Similarly, early versions of Russia’s Molniya attack drone were crude, made of two sticks, wings, and a taped-on TMK-2 anti-tank mine. Now, these drones feature composite-material bodies, proving that Russia has streamlined large-scale production.
That said, mass production can sometimes lead to lower quality. But Russia doesn’t care about quality—their strategy is overwhelming Ukraine with quantity.
Russia’s presence at IDEX 2025: What does it mean?
At the IDEX 2025 defense expo in Abu Dhabi, Russia showcased its drones on a stand nearly four times larger than Ukraine’s.
Khrapchynskyi: Russia has always dominated international defense expos—whether in aviation, armored vehicles, artillery, or electronic warfare systems. Despite sanctions, Russia remains a global player in arms sales.
At IDEX, they likely displayed multipurpose UAVs like Orlan and Orion, but not Shaheds, since those aren’t Russian-designed.
Russia is actively trying to enter international markets. While Europe and the U.S. won’t buy their weapons, Latin America, Africa, and parts of Asia—such as India—are potential customers.
Can Russia launch 500 drones in a single attack?
Khrapchynskyi: The real issue isn’t whether Russia can assemble that many drones—it’s whether they can source enough critical foreign components like engines, navigation systems, and microelectronics.
One potential problem for Ukraine is Belarus’ growing role in microelectronics production. Belarusian company Integral has already started manufacturing components for Russian cruise missiles and UAVs, and this could boost Moscow’s ability to sustain large-scale drone attacks.
Additionally, Russia’s drone program is highly cost-effective.
A Shahed drone uses only 4-5 liters of A-95 gasoline per hour.
A Kh-101 or Kh-555 cruise missile requires 180-190 kg of rocket fuel per hour.
A Tu-95MS strategic bomber burns 5-6 tons of aviation fuel per hour—and flights can last 6-9 hours.
For example, deploying 14 Tu-95 bombers for a six-hour mission would require 504 tons of fuel. Meanwhile, 100 Shahed drones would only need 3,600 liters of gasoline—without requiring costly bombers to launch them.
Drones can also be launched from mobile trucks or container systems, making them harder to track.
How can Ukraine counter mass drone attacks?
Ukraine is increasingly using interceptor drones to neutralize Russian UAVs mid-air. This strategy has already proven effective against Russian reconnaissance drones.
However, Khrapchynskyi believes that increasing the number of mobile air defense teams isn’t a sustainable solution. Instead, Ukraine needs automated defense systems that can detect and intercept drones without human intervention.
This would involve:
Radar, acoustic detection, and optical tracking systems working in sync
Automated turrets with heavy machine guns like Browning or Canik M2
Small anti-aircraft missiles or drone interceptors
For example, Ukraine could deploy 12 launchers with three interception systems in suburban areas to create fully automated aerial defense zones.
This approach would reduce reliance on manual air defense crews, allowing Ukraine to scale up operations effectively.
Can Ukraine launch 500 drones per night against Russia?
Khrapchynskyi: The key difference is quality vs. quantity.
Ukraine could launch 100-200 drones per night, but it’s not just about numbers—it’s about carefully planned operations.
Unlike Russia, which floods Ukraine’s air defenses with decoys like Gerbera and Parody drones, Ukraine focuses on precision strikes.
To scale up attacks, Ukraine needs:
A strong economy to sustain drone production
Government contracts to support domestic drone manufacturers
International funding models, like Italy and Denmark directly financing Ukraine’s drone industry
How can Ukraine become a major drone producer?
Ukraine has a competitive private drone sector, which drives innovation. The government aims to produce 4.5 million FPV drones in 2025, meaning 12,000 FPV strikes per day—double last year’s daily average.
However, scaling production requires proper funding and legal frameworks.
One solution would be:
A unified European defense industry standard
Joint manufacturing agreements between Ukraine and European nations
Ukraine transferring its expertise in drone warfare to NATO partners
In exchange, Europe could help Ukraine develop air defense and missile systems—areas where Kyiv still faces significant challenges.
Ukraine has an opportunity to lead in drone technology, but achieving this will require strategic investments and deeper cooperation with European defense industries.
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