ISW Russia analysis

Russia using budget to ease oil firms' losses from Ukrainian strikes

Russian authorities are attempting to ease the financial difficulties of Russian oil companies by compensating them from the federal budget for losses stemming from Ukrainian strikes on refining facilities, the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in its July 21 report.

22 July, 11:18 AM

Ukraine may intensify strikes as Russian propagandists slam government over air defense failures

Successful strikes by Ukraine's Defense Forces on targets deep inside Russia have fueled criticism from Russian propagandists and military bloggers, who accuse the government of failing to build an effective air defense system, according to a July 7 analysis by the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

8 July, 01:00 PM

Putin’s commanders inflate Russian gains as Ukraine offensive slows, ISW finds

Russia’s military command regularly shows dictator Vladimir Putin exaggerated data on Russian advances at the front in Ukraine, prompting the Kremlin leader to make increasingly unrealistic demands in peace talks, the Institute for the Study of War said on May 28.

29 May, 12:14 PM

Russia’s war economy shows new strain beneath Putin’s upbeat pitch

Russian dictator Vladimir Putin cast Russia’s latest economic figures as proof that government measures are working, even as the data points to mounting strain in the country’s economy, the Institute for the Study of War said in an analysis on May 15.

16 May, 11:47 AM

Russia’s battlefield gains slow as Kremlin presses Donbas ultimatum — ISW

Moscow continues to demand that Ukrainian troops withdraw from the parts of Donbas still under Ukrainian control as a condition for a lasting ceasefire, even as Russian forces made slower gains in spring 2026 than they did in 2025, when the Kremlin began pushing the ultimatum more aggressively, the Institute for the Study of War said in a May 8 analysis.

9 May, 07:00 PM

Russia’s threats to strike Kyiv expose Kremlin weakness, ISW says

The Kremlin’s escalating threats to strike Kyiv with ballistic missiles ahead of Russia’s May 9 Victory Day were likely meant to conceal Moscow’s weakness and its inability to reliably protect much of its airspace from Ukrainian long-range strikes, the Institute for the Study of War said.

9 May, 10:23 AM

Ukraine's deep strikes on Russian cities reveal glaring gaps in Moscow's air defenses

Ukraine's sustained long-range strikes on Russian cities deep behind the front lines expose Moscow's inability to reliably protect major infrastructure from drone and missile attacks, the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in its May 5 assessment.

6 May, 11:50 AM

ISW rebuts Gerasimov’s claims as Russia’s spring offensive stalls in Ukraine

Russian General Staff chief Valery Gerasimov is overstating Moscow’s gains in Ukraine, the Institute for the Study of War said on April 21, arguing that his latest claims are not supported by open-source evidence or even by pro-Russian military bloggers.

22 April, 11:10 AM

Ukraine blunts Moscow’s push, undercuts claims of inevitable Russian victory

Ukraine’s recent counterattacks are undermining Moscow’s claims that a Russian battlefield victory is inevitable and that Kyiv must accept Russia’s demands before its position worsens further, the Institute for the Study of War said in its Feb. 24 report, marking four years since Russia’s full-scale invasion.

25 February, 12:04 PM

Kremlin rejects compromise, sticks to original war aims in Ukraine

Although trilateral talks between Ukraine, the United States, and Russia are expected to resume in the coming days, Kremlin officials continue to demonstrate Russia’s commitment to its original war aims and reject the idea of Western security guarantees for Ukraine, the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War wrote in its Jan. 25 report.

26 January, 11:51 AM

Kremlin ties Ukraine’s future to NATO’s collapse — ISW

Russian dictator Vladimir Putin continues to demonstrate that he is not interested in any peace settlement limited to Ukraine alone or one that does not involve radical NATO restructuring, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) wrote on Jan. 15.

16 January, 10:19 AM

Putin tries to show U.S. Russia's economy is strong enough for long war with Ukraine

Russian dictator Vladimir Putin is trying to demonstrate that Russia's economy is supposedly strong enough to wage a long war against Ukraine. He is likely doing this to support the Kremlin's information efforts, which create the impression of Russia's "inevitable victory," according to a report by the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) on Dec. 8.

9 December 2025, 12:01 PM

Ceding Donbas to Russia would bolster its offensive position — ISW analysis

Russia’s demand for full control of the Donbas would give Moscow a stronger foothold for renewed aggression against Ukraine whenever it sees fit, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) warned in their Oct. 19 assessment.

20 October 2025, 10:26 AM

Dozens of armored vehicles in combat: Russia returns to large-scale mechanized assaults on the front lines — ISW

Over the past two weeks, Russian forces have launched three mechanized assaults involving company- or battalion-sized units along the hottest parts of the front in Donetsk Oblast, signaling a shift in how Russia is deploying armored vehicles in its war against Ukraine, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) wrote in their Oct. 14 report.

15 October 2025, 10:22 AM

Big money no longer buys Russian soldiers, ISW says

Russia’s strategy of luring new military recruits with massive financial incentives — its primary tool for filling the ranks with volunteer fighters — appears to be losing steam, the Institute for the Study of War said in its Oct. 12 report.

13 October 2025, 10:24 AM

Russia enters new phase of prep for future war with NATO — ISW analysis

Russia appears to be accelerating the initial stage of its campaign to prepare for a potential future war with NATO and has shifted to laying the information and psychological groundwork for such a conflict, analysts at the Institute for the Study of War said in their Oct. 6 report.

7 October 2025, 10:22 AM

Russia aims to encircle Pokrovsk, bypass Ukrainian defenses — ISW

In the coming months, Russian forces will likely try to encircle the city of Pokrovsk and bypass Ukraine’s fortified defense line from the west in Donetsk Oblast, according to the Institute for the Study of War’s July 5 assessment.

6 July 2025, 10:22 AM

Preparing a new generation for years of war: What Putin’s latest Security Council meeting signals — ISW analysis

On June 10, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin convened a meeting of Russia’s Security Council, focusing heavily on so-called “military-patriotic” programs for youth and government initiatives aimed at promoting Russian nationalism, according to a new analysis by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

11 June 2025, 10:55 AM

Russia unlikely to seize half of Ukraine by 2026 if Western aid continues — ISW

Russia is unlikely to achieve its goal of occupying half of Ukraine by the end of 2026, given the current state of its offensive capabilities and continued Western military aid to Kyiv, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in its June 6 assessment.

7 June 2025, 02:20 PM

Russian army suffers massive losses as Kremlin feigns interest in peace talks — ISW

The Kremlin remains uninterested in good-faith peace negotiations with Ukraine, even as Russian forces continue to suffer disproportionately high battlefield losses, according to a June 5 report from the Institute for the Study of War.

6 June 2025, 02:29 PM

ISW Russia analysis

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