Russia may use drone incidents to justify future attacks on NATO states

The analysts pointed to NATO's first-ever interception of a drone over Latvia on June 8 after Russian electronic warfare systems reportedly redirected the aircraft into Latvian airspace.

According to ISW, Latvia's National Armed Forces said French fighter jets participating in NATO's Baltic Air Policing mission shot down a "foreign drone" — reportedly a Ukrainian unmanned aircraft that entered Latvian airspace after being affected by Russian electronic warfare measures.

The incident marked the first time NATO forces have downed a drone inside Latvian airspace.

ISW also highlighted a separate incident on June 5, when a Ukrainian naval drone reportedly lost control due to Russian electronic warfare interference and drifted toward Romania's coastline.

Russian officials used the episode to promote narratives portraying Ukraine as the aggressor in a war launched by Russia and to shift blame away from Moscow, the analysts said.

The Kremlin is likely to continue exploiting similar incidents near or within NATO borders to avoid responsibility for unintended strikes by Russian drones or to create conditions for potential false-flag attacks against Romania or the Baltic states in the future, ISW assessed.

Latvian authorities declared an air alert in the Kraslava and Ludza regions on the morning of June 8 after a drone entered the country's airspace. Warnings of a potential threat were also issued in the Rezekne and Balvi regions, while NATO allied fighter jets were scrambled in response.

Latvia's armed forces later confirmed that NATO aircraft had shot down a drone that violated the country's airspace.