Analyst: Putin manipulating Trump ahead of planned Alaska summit

“So far, everything is working out for Putin,” Nesvytailov said. “Everything he does toward Trump is phenomenal — and it works. There was another case when people said, ‘This time Trump has finally gotten angry.’ My colleagues were saying, ‘Now you’ll see.’ There was an ultimatum — 50 days, then 10 days. And when the deadline expired, absolutely nothing happened. Once again, nothing at all.”

Putin has “clearly demonstrated” that he knows how to handle Trump — and it’s not the first time, Nesvytailov said. A previous example came in May 2025, when European leaders gathered in Kyiv to present Russia with a joint ceasefire proposal.

“It wasn’t a small thing. European leaders, in coordination with Donald Trump, decided to issue Putin an ultimatum — either agree to an unconditional ceasefire by the end of the following week or face sanctions and unprecedented consequences. The U.S. had signed on to it,” he recalled.

Russia ignored the ultimatum. “The very next day, it proposed a meeting in Istanbul, and that was it. Trump said, ‘No ultimatum, no pressure — just a meeting and talks,’” Nesvytailov said.

The same is happening now, he argued, with Russia offering no concessions or compromises.

“I don’t know if [Trump envoy Steve] Witkoff is just a useful idiot, just an idiot, or just useful — it’s hard to tell. But what he did played right into Putin’s hands. For Putin, it’s perfect. This is the perfect storm,” Nesvytailov said.

The mere fact of the meeting is “a big win” for Putin, he added, as it gives the Kremlin leader “an exit from international isolation at the highest level.”

“And a meeting in Alaska — I don’t know if Trump understands the potential symbolism of meeting Putin there. Russian propaganda will exploit this, pushing the symbolism hard to strengthen Putin,” Nesvytailov said.

He added that, if he were in the Russian security services, he would even arrange a “warm welcome” for Putin. “There’s a large Russian diaspora there. There are people in Alaska who romanticize Russia — they could meet him with Russian flags, suggesting Alaska is waiting to ‘return to its native harbor,’” he said.