"I don't think Putin directly threatened Lukashenko's life. But hints in that direction could certainly have been made. Russia knows how to blackmail people, and Putin knows how to blackmail people — we know that very well. Lukashenko likely understood that, to be safe, he needed security guarantees from someone more powerful than Putin. The only person who could be seen as stronger and more credible to Lukashenko than Putin is Xi Jinping," political analyst Vadym Denysenko said on Radio NV, commenting on Lukashenko's recent meetings with Putin and Xi Jinping.
Denysenko said Lukashenko traveled to meet Xi "as a vassal meeting his suzerain," seeking protection for himself and his family after, in his view, fulfilling his commitments.
"This is essentially a classic game that resembles the Middle Ages. But when dealing with Putin, it is obviously better to take precautions, including in this way," Denysenko said, adding that Xi — apart from U.S. President Donald Trump — is the only leader capable of guaranteeing Lukashenko's security and political survival.
"Lukashenko understands that if he speaks this firmly to Putin, Putin may not stop and could order his assassination in order to replace him with someone more loyal. That's why Lukashenko rushed to seek security guarantees," Denysenko said.
Ukraine's ultimatum to Belarus and Lukashenko's meetings with Putin and Xi
On June 19, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he was giving Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko seven days to dismantle relay stations used to guide Russian drones from Belarusian territory.
"If he doesn't do it, we will," Zelenskyy said at the time.
On June 24, Zelenskyy said the relay stations had stopped operating on June 22, adding that it was still unclear whether Lukashenko's regime had actually dismantled the equipment.
On June 25, following a briefing from Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service, Zelenskyy said Belarus was completing the construction of road infrastructure and ammunition and fuel storage facilities along its border with Ukraine.
"Belarus knows what steps it must take to achieve peace. The development of infrastructure supporting aggression from Belarus must stop," Zelenskyy said.
On June 26, Lukashenko traveled to Russia for a closed-door meeting with Vladimir Putin at his Valdai residence. The talks lasted about five hours.
On June 29, Lukashenko held an unannounced meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing. According to Belarusian state media, Xi said China-Belarus relations were at a "historic high."
Xi also said China and Belarus should "promote the continuous development of bilateral relations at a high level" and "maintain strategic communication." He added that Beijing supports Belarus in safeguarding its national sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity.