Pashinyan has led Armenia since 2018 and has moved
increasingly to distance Yerevan from Moscow while seeking closer ties with the
European Union.
The vote is Armenia’s first nationwide election since its
defeat in the 2023 war with Azerbaijan, when Baku restored control over
Nagorno-Karabakh. Armenia has since tried to move away from Russia and closer
to the European Union. Yerevan was angered by the inaction of Russian
“peacekeepers” in Nagorno-Karabakh during Azerbaijan’s military operation.
Reuters
described the June 7 election as “a test of Pashinyan’s efforts to make peace
with a longtime foe — Azerbaijan — and deepen ties with Western countries while
distancing Armenia from its traditional patron, Russia.”
Polls show Pashinyan’s Civil Contract party is the most likely
winner, leading with about 30% support. His main rival, Russian-Armenian
billionaire Samvel Karapetyan of Strong Armenia, who favors closer ties with
Moscow, trails with 6% to 11%. Other pro-Russian forces also have a chance of
entering parliament, including the Prosperous Armenia party of oligarch Gagik
Tsarukyan and the Armenia Alliance, led by former President Robert Kocharyan.
All could later join forces in parliament.
Reuters noted that if Pashinyan’s party fails to win a
two-thirds majority in Armenia’s 107-seat parliament, the prime minister will
struggle to amend the constitution to remove references to Nagorno-Karabakh.
Azerbaijan has demanded that step from Yerevan before signing a final peace
treaty. Although the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan signed a declaration on
peaceful relations in Washington in the summer of 2025 with Donald Trump
involved, the two countries still have no final peace agreement.
One of Pashinyan’s main campaign messages has been the push
for peace and the normalization of borders, including the border with Türkiye,
which has been closed since 1993. In May 2026, Armenia opened rail links for
imports and exports with EU countries through Türkiye. “Ahead is the opening of
railway links between Armenia and Türkiye, Armenia and Azerbaijan, and through
Nakhchivan — between Armenia and Iran,” Pashinyan promised. He also hopes to
secure an easing of the visa regime with the European Union within two years.
Armenia still depends heavily on Russia for its economy and
energy supplies, with up to one-third of its exports going to Russia. “In
recent weeks, Russia, which has a large military base in Armenia, has stepped
up pressure by restricting a wide range of Armenian exports and threatening to
cut off supplies of cheap gas and oil,” Reuters noted. Russia has already
banned imports of several Armenian products, including mineral water,
vegetables and brandy.
Russian pressure has become one of the defining factors in
Armenia’s election campaign. The Kremlin has repeatedly criticized Pashinyan
over his push for closer ties with the West. In late May, Russian dictator
Vladimir Putin threatened Armenia with a “Ukrainian scenario” over its pursuit
of European integration after a Eurasian Economic Union summit in Astana.
On May 29, countries in the Moscow-controlled EAEU — Russia,
Kazakhstan, Belarus and Kyrgyzstan — issued veiled threats to Armenia and
demanded that Yerevan soon hold a referendum on the country’s foreign policy
course and choose between the EAEU and the EU. In the same document, they said
they would consider the “possible consequences” for Armenia if it continues
moving closer to the EU at the next meeting of the Supreme Eurasian Economic
Council in December 2026.
Pashinyan rejected the idea of such a referendum, saying:
“Until Armenia officially applies for membership in the European Union or comes
close to candidate status for EU membership, holding any referendum is
illogical.” He said the choice between the EAEU and the EU that Russia is
trying to force on Armenia remains only “theoretical” for now.
Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service warned that Russia
had launched a large-scale campaign of coordinated political, information and
economic pressure on Yerevan ahead of the election.
Ukrainian intelligence said the Kremlin’s main goal is to remove Pashinyan from power completely. Its minimum objective is to fragment Armenia’s next parliament after the vote and prevent the pro-European Civil Contract party from making key foreign policy and security decisions on its own.
“If Armenia’s future government — whether Nikol Pashinyan or
someone else — tries to diversify away from Russian influence, to get at least
somewhat out of Russia’s orbit, then Russia could lose the entire South
Caucasus. That is why it is now doing everything to keep Armenia within its
zone of interests,” Naira Hayrumyan, editor of Step.am, said in an interview
with Radio
NV ahead of the election.
The European Union, meanwhile, is closely watching
developments in Armenia. Yerevan hosted a European Political Community summit
and a bilateral Armenia-EU summit on May 4–5. EU leaders attended, including
French President Emmanuel Macron, as well as leaders from the United Kingdom
and Canada.
In early June, European Commission President Ursula von der
Leyen assured Pashinyan of Brussels’ support amid rising Russian pressure.
“This is nothing less than economic coercion, and it is unacceptable. By
expanding export restrictions on Armenian products, Moscow is weaponizing
economic relations for political pressure. We know this approach all too well.
That is why Europe firmly supports Armenia,” von der Leyen said.
In the 2021 election, Pashinyan drew his strongest support
from Armenia’s regions and rural heartland. Since coming to power during the
country’s 2018 Velvet Revolution, he has doubled GDP per capita and improved
infrastructure, with the government building thousands of kilometers of roads.