“Belarus does not have the forces for a broad invasion like in 2022, and there is no movement of any contingents from Russia,” Bezsmertnyi said.
He said Belarus annually mobilizes reservists who, he argued, do not meet current reserve standards, along with as many as 2,000 officers. “Most of this is civil defense,” the diplomat said.
Bezsmertnyi said Belarus currently fields a 46,000-strong conscript army but faces a “colossal shortage” of ammunition and equipment, especially armored vehicles, because stockpiles have been siphoned to fuel the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
“Much of the equipment was long ago scrapped, especially armor used on the Russia
He said he sees no buildup of forces or intelligence in the Belarusian direction. Aside from some road repairs, “there is no activity to build new roads,” he said, adding that the swampy, forested terrain makes it difficult to use armor or heavy transport. Main routes, he said, are “blocked, mined or sealed with fortifications.”
Bezsmertnyi suggested that Russian dictator Vladimir Putin and his Belarusian counterpart Alexander Lukashenko might consider using untrained conscripts for provocations against NATO countries, but said that is unlikely because polls show 80% of Belarusians oppose participation in the war. He added that any Russian kinetic operation would likely be limited and carried out under a foreign flag, possibly Belarusian, but that Belarusian forces are unlikely to be used.
“Conscript forces don’t have the required training,” he said.
“Special units and the gendarmerie, about 16,000 strong, are
aimed at suppressing their own people. Special operations forces are very small
— estimates range from 1,500 to 2,000, not the 4,000 sometimes cited. That is
not enough to carry out a serious operation.”