Ukraine has 6 months to seize initiative and strengthen peace talks position, 3rd Corps' Biletsky says

According to him, the war with Russia is nearing a “turning point,” and the Russian army is exhausted and incapable of major breakthroughs.

The commander said that if Ukrainian forces can build and sustain offensive momentum over the next several months, they may be able to regain the initiative along the front line and force Russia to abandon its plans for the part of Donetsk Oblast it has not yet occupied.

“I believe the next six to nine months are a turning point. More precisely, ​I think the next six are the most critical,” Biletsky said in a conversation with reporters in a secret underground shelter in Kharkiv Oblast.

He said Ukraine’s Defense Forces need to identify the sectors where they can improve their positions, take some strategic points and then “talk to the Russians from a position of strength, not weakness, about a truly stable truce.”

“From a military point of view, this is realistic,” Biletsky added. “It does seem like, four or five months into this year, it's much more likely that the Russians will get exhausted before the Ukrainian problems come to a breaking point.”

Russia’s manpower shortages no longer allow it to advance the way it did a year ago. The commander added that it is still too early to draw firm conclusions from Ukraine’s recent success, but the country can build on it by continuing medium-range strikes and advancing “carefully.”

Moscow is “radically losing” in battlefield communications because of measures limiting the use of Starlink. At the same time, Biletsky said Ukraine leads in unmanned ground vehicles and heavy bomber drones, while Russia is ahead in the race for fiber-optic drones, which cannot be jammed.

“The next ‘revolution’ will allow commanders ​to stage more ‘creative’ combined assault operations while conserving precious troops,” he added. “It will happen this year, and I think we'll show how our corps is a vivid example of it.”

Ukrainian Defense Forces’ battlefield gains

Analysts at the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War said in a May 20 report that Ukraine’s Defense Forces are regaining the tactical initiative in various sectors of the front after a series of counterattacks and because of rising losses among Russian forces.

ISW said Ukraine’s Defense Forces are likely to further expand their medium-range strike campaign and continue counterattacks in vulnerable sectors of the front, which would probably further slow the Russian offensive.

On May 21, Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov said the Defense Forces had significantly increased the monthly number of Russian troops killed and wounded.