The Ukrainian government remains committed to restoring control over all territories occupied by Russia, while implicitly recognizing that Kyiv may have to accept Moscow’s de facto control over Crimea as the price of peace, Galeotti writes. Under this strategy, Vladimir Putin would have to negotiate on Kyiv’s terms if he wants to end the blockade and remove the threat to the peninsula.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy appears confident that the strategy can succeed. He has approved a 40-day “operation to pressure the aggressor state into ending the war,” to be carried out by the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU).
Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov is also optimistic, the author writes. Galeotti argues that while confidence is growing in Kyiv, pessimism is mounting in Russia.
However, the outcome could prove far less predictable and controllable than Zelenskyy likely expects. Galeotti describes two competing schools of thought within Russia’s ruling elite over how to proceed with the war.
According to Galeotti, pragmatists believe Russia should freeze the conflict. In their view, Moscow should consolidate control over the territory it already occupies, declare victory and begin negotiations in hopes of securing at least partial sanctions relief and an end to Ukrainian long-range strikes inside Russia.
Hard-liners, by contrast, favor escalation, including mobilizing hundreds of thousands of reservists and potentially carrying out more aggressive operations against European factories supplying weapons to Ukraine, the columnist writes.
Such a strategy would be highly risky, but hard-liners who doubt Ukraine’s ability to withstand a renewed offensive by fresh Russian forces see it as a viable option. Putin, however, has so far remained cautious and appears unconvinced.
Still, Galeotti warns that when the Russian leader panics, he has a tendency to make hasty and unsuccessful decisions. If Putin fears that losing Crimea could lead to his downfall, he may choose to enter negotiations — or, just as easily, be persuaded to raise the stakes.
On June 24, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State for Foreign Assistance, Humanitarian Affairs and Religious Freedom Jeremy Lewin said Ukraine was at a point where it was winning the war against Russia.
Separately, The Kyiv Independent, citing a senior Ukrainian official, reported that U.S. President Donald Trump had privately urged Zelenskyy to take a “bolder” approach toward Russia.
Also on June 24, CNBC reported that European analysts believe successful strikes deep inside Russian territory and increased pressure on occupied Crimea could not only shift the war further in Kyiv’s favor but also trigger a new escalation by Moscow.
On June 25, Zelenskyy approved a “40-day operation to pressure the aggressor state into ending the war.”
On June 26, Russian-installed Crimea head Sergey Aksyonov declared a state of emergency across the peninsula effective from 1 p.m., saying the measure was primarily needed to address economic challenges.
The announcement followed widespread power outages and a worsening fuel shortage in occupied Crimea. The Russian-installed authorities also reported the closure of children’s camps and a failed tourist season.