Denmark warns Russia could launch limited attack on NATO countries

Russia is likely to intensify its hybrid warfare against the West in the coming months, according to the agency’s report.

“A limited military offensive would be a desperate move by Russia and, like an escalation of hybrid attacks, could potentially take place in the coming months,” the Danish Defense Intelligence Service said.

Thomas Ahrenkiel, head of the intelligence service, told a news conference that such Russian attacks could include isolated strikes with long-range weapons such as drones or missiles against infrastructure that supports Ukraine.

“Or they could be false-flag operations using Ukrainian-made drones,” he said.

Russian provocation threat in Europe

Col. Paweł Szota, head of Poland’s Foreign Intelligence Agency, publicly said on June 28 that Russia was prepared to send “little green men” into the Baltic states. The Polish intelligence chief assessed that Russian dictator Vladimir Putin is now hostage to his own defeat, and that Russia could therefore continue fighting in Ukraine for several more years while carrying out hybrid attacks on NATO’s eastern flank.

Lithuania’s Defense Ministry issued a somewhat different statement on June 29. In comments cited by Lithuanian broadcaster LRT, the ministry said there were currently no objective signs that Russia was preparing a full-scale military attack on the Baltic states.

The Wall Street Journal reported on Aug. 6 that U.S. intelligence considers it possible that Russian dictator Vladimir Putin could try to test NATO’s readiness for collective defense — including through cyberattacks, sabotage or a limited incursion into one NATO country — from this fall through 2029. U.S. assessments suggest Moscow’s goal may not be to seize territory, but to test NATO unity and allies’ willingness to invoke Article 5.

CNN reported on Sept. 17 that Russia’s hybrid attacks against Europe are intended to create a sense that war is approaching without escalating into direct conflict. However, Moscow could eventually make a mistake and cross a line that would force NATO to respond with force.

CNN assessed that Russian dictator Vladimir Putin is pursuing two key goals. The first is to make the cost of supporting Ukraine seem like an increasingly heavy burden to European societies. The second is to test NATO’s willingness to respond to threats and effectively test the collective defense principle enshrined in Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said on Sept. 18 that the most likely scenario for the coming months was Russian hybrid attacks involving drones and missiles against countries supporting Ukraine.

“In short: There is a real risk that drones or missiles of another type could fly into the territory of one or more countries on the eastern flank, even causing destruction, while the official explanation would be that it was an accident,” he said.

A Russian military helicopter violated Polish airspace near the city of Braniewo on Sept. 23.

Poland’s Operational Command said the helicopter flew from the direction of Kaliningrad Oblast and briefly entered Polish territory before immediately turning back.