Disrupted logistics, not capacity loss, driving Russia’s fuel shortages

He explained how crucial the logistics is for Russian fuel supply.

“In Samara Oblast, three and a half plants were hit — fuel still needs to be trucked in,"  the expert explained. 

"But from where? Saratov plant was damaged. From the Urals, from the Perm plant? Or from Omsk, or the Far East? Those long, costly logistics chains are the critical factor in the fuel crisis."

Krutykhin is sure it is more effective to strike logistics, not only the plants themselves. He cited Ukrainian strikes on electrical infrastructure as an example.

“Ukrainian drones do not hit power plants — they hit substations and nodal electrical stations that can disrupt supply across large areas in European Russia," the expert said.

"In a single day, five large substations can be put out of service.”

That, he added, deals a serious blow to the Russian energy system ahead of winter and affects the operation of military factories and refineries.

Krutykhin also outlined a list of critical targets: refineries, pipelines, loading terminals, high-voltage transformers, fuel storage facilities and depots.

He drew attention to a notable Ukrainian strike on surface facilities of an underground gas storage in Bashkortostan.

“If you put pump-compressor stations and control points out of action, that gas won’t be usable in winter — and that’s vital for Russia,” he said.

Particularly vulnerable are pump stations feeding export terminals, specifically Tikhoretsk and Kropotkinsk — strikes there will sharply reduce Russia’s export capacity.

“Or the BTS-2 route from Unecha to the Belarus border to Ust-Luga — throughput was already cut after strikes on three pump stations,” the expert concluded.