Germany’s top general warns NATO to prepare for Russian attack by 2029

According to Breuer, Russia is rapidly expanding its armed forces and currently produces around 1,500 main battle tanks annually.

“Not all of those tanks are being sent to fight in Ukraine—some are going into storage and into new military units that are clearly oriented toward the West,” he said.

Breuer also noted that in 2024 alone, Russia manufactured roughly four million 152 mm artillery shells, with many not intended for use in Ukraine. Instead, these stockpiles are being built up for possible attacks on the Baltic states.

“Analysts believe Russia could be ready for an offensive by 2029,” Breuer said. “That’s why we must be prepared now. Is there any guarantee it won’t happen earlier? No. That’s exactly why we need to be ready to defend ourselves today.”

He identified the Suwałki Gap—a narrow strip of land between Poland and Lithuania bordered by Russia and Belarus—as one of NATO’s most vulnerable flashpoints in the event of aggression.

“The Baltic states are particularly exposed. When you’re there, you can feel it,” he added. “Estonians describe it like someone who already feels the heat, sees the flames, and smells the smoke. Meanwhile, in Germany, we only see a light haze on the horizon.”

Breuer emphasized that Moscow views the war in Ukraine as part of a broader conflict with NATO and is actively probing the Alliance’s defenses.

He cited examples such as attacks on undersea cables in the Baltic Sea, cyberattacks on public transportation systems, and drone flights near critical infrastructure in Germany.

“We have to act now—invest more resources and effort to ensure we can defend ourselves and strengthen our deterrence capabilities,” Breuer said.

A recent Bundeswehr report similarly warned that Russian dictator Vladimir Putin may be planning a large-scale war against NATO to achieve his strategic goals by force. Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda has also cautioned that a Russian assault could come within the next four to five years.