This discrepancy emerged during meetings held by IMF staff in Kyiv in early September, focused on external financing for 2026 and 2027. Resolving this gap is critical before the Washington-based lender reviews Ukraine’s request for a new lending program, as current support is nearing its end.
If the IMF’s estimates are accurate, Ukraine may need billions of dollars more in annual support from Western allies to continue its defense against Russia.
“As the war drags into its fourth year with no end in sight, there are growing concerns that Ukraine may struggle to meet its mounting military demands,” the article states.
The IMF is Ukraine’s third-largest lender, but its financial support comes with conditions.
Kyiv maintains its previous forecast that it will need $37.5 billion over the next two years. However, one official familiar with the negotiations says the IMF estimates $10–20 billion more may be necessary.
The two sides are expected to reconcile their estimates next week in ongoing consultations. Once they agree on the figure, the Ukrainian government and the IMF will approach Ukraine’s allies to explore ways of closing the financial gap.
“The IMF is working with the Ukrainian authorities to assess financing needs for the remainder of 2025 and for 2026,” said IMF spokesperson Julie Kozack.
“These discussions will also take into account assumptions about the possible duration of the war.”
Kozack did not specify a timeline for a new financing program but said it would be designed in the coming weeks.
On July 1, Ukraine received its ninth IMF tranche of $500 million.
Ukraine has received $10.6 billion out of the planned $15.6 billion from the IMF in total, after eight successful reviews under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF).
The IMF will combine the ninth and tenth reviews under the EFF program, along with the related tranches at Ukraine’s request.
Finance Minister Serhii Marchenko said that Ukraine has not yet decided whether it will continue under the current program or seek a new one.
The current 4-year EFF program for $16 billion is set to expire in Q1 of 2027.
PM Yuliia Svyrydenko highlighted that a new program may be needed if the war continues beyond expectations.