ISW analysts noted that the alleged attack lacks all the typical indicators seen in confirmed Ukrainian strikes, usually documented through open sources. These include geolocated videos from the scene, visible explosions, fires or smoke near targets, comments from local or regional Russian officials — who typically downplay strikes — and reports by local media describing damage.
In the case of the supposed strike near Putin’s Valdai residence, ISW found no videos or reports that could substantiate Lavrov’s claim, the analysts emphasized.
ISW also pointed out that Lavrov’s statement claiming that 89 Ukrainian drones were intercepted over Russia’s Novgorod Oblast contradicts Russia’s own Ministry of Defense, which reported that only 47 drones were shot down on the night of Dec. 28–29. This discrepancy further undermines the credibility of Lavrov’s assertions, ISW said.
The institute added that Ukrainian forces earlier attacked multiple military targets in Novgorod Oblast, with those attacks confirmed by available evidence. In contrast, the Kremlin has provided no factual proof to support its claim of a strike on Putin’s residence on Dec. 29.
ISW analysts also cited Russia’s opposition outlet Sota, which reported that residents of Valdai did not hear air defense systems operating overnight. The outlet concluded that a strike on Putin’s heavily fortified residence would be “technically impossible” and could occur only through a “miracle” or due to the “deliberate complicity of the military command.”
ISW noted that between 2022 and August 2025, Russia increased the number of air defense systems protecting Valdai from two to twelve.
On Dec. 29, Lavrov accused Ukraine of launching 91 drones at Putin’s Valdai residence and threatened a “retaliatory strike.”
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy dismissed Lavrov’s claims as “another Russian lie,” warning that Moscow may be preparing strikes on Kyiv. He also called on Ukraine’s partners, including the United States and European countries, to increase pressure on Russia to force it to genuinely pursue an end to the war.