“These claims continue to be detached from battlefield realities,” ISW analysts wrote in their Sept. 2 assessment.
The institute published several maps comparing Putin’s statements with observed developments along the front.
Putin claimed at a Sept. 1 press conference that Russian forces were accelerating their offensive in Ukraine, that the seizure of Donetsk Oblast was proceeding according to plan, and that Russian troops had captured 15 settlements covering 270 square kilometers (104 square miles) there in August.
ISW calculated that Russian forces actually captured 73.14 square kilometers (28.2 square miles) in Donetsk Oblast during August. When infiltration operations are included, Russian forces advanced across 104.44 square kilometers (40.3 square miles) in the region.
Across the entire theater of operations, Russia seized 90.35 square kilometers (34.9 square miles) of confirmed territory during August 2026 — roughly one-third of the figure Putin claimed for Donetsk Oblast alone.
Claims about Sloviansk, Kramatorsk and Sviatohirsk
Putin also claimed that Russian troops were between 1.5 and 4 kilometers (0.9-2.5 miles) from the eastern outskirts of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk and the southern outskirts of Druzhkivka.
ISW’s maps show that this does not correspond to the actual battlefield situation.
Putin further claimed that Russia’s Northern Grouping of Forces had captured Sviatohirsk, north of Sloviansk.
ISW said there was no evidence supporting that claim.
Russian forces came no closer than about 13 kilometers (8 miles) from Sviatohirsk in late spring and early summer 2026 and are now likely even farther away because of ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensive operations near Lyman, whose full extent remains unclear, the analysts said.
Putin also claimed that the Northern Grouping of Forces had captured Kozacha Lopan, north of Kharkiv — a claim already rejected by Ukrainian authorities.
ISW assessed that Russian forces had advanced across only 1.31 square kilometers (0.5 square miles) inside Kozacha Lopan and were present in about 13.39% of the settlement.
No evidence of alleged encirclement of 5,000 Ukrainian troops
Putin additionally claimed that Russia’s Western Grouping of Forces had surrounded 13 Ukrainian battalions totaling about 5,000 troops on the eastern bank of the Oskil Reservoir near Pisky-Radkivski in Kharkiv Oblast’s Izium district, roughly 16 kilometers (10 miles) from the front line.
ISW said it had found no evidence that Russian troops were present in the area Putin identified, much less that they had encircled a significant Ukrainian force there.
The institute compared the claim with a similar assertion made by Russian Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov in October 2025, when he claimed Russian forces had surrounded 18 Ukrainian battalions in Kupiansk.
That claim was later definitively disproved, ISW noted, including by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s public visit to Kupiansk in November 2025.
Russian advances slow dramatically as losses remain high
ISW also rejected Putin’s broader portrayal of Ukrainian defenses as collapsing and Russian troops as rapidly accelerating their advance.
The pace of Russian territorial gains has instead slowed considerably.
Russian forces captured 505.55 square kilometers (195.2 square miles) of Ukrainian territory in August 2025, compared with just 90.35 square kilometers (34.9 square miles) in August 2026.
Russian personnel losses have meanwhile exceeded 40,000 troops per month in both July and August 2026, ISW said.
Putin’s heavily exaggerated descriptions of Russian advances are “part of longstanding Kremlin cognitive warfare efforts aimed at portraying Ukrainian defenses as inevitably collapsing despite substantial evidence to the contrary,” the analysts said.
ISW sees no sign Moscow wants genuine peace talks
ISW also said Putin’s remarks demonstrated Russia’s “unwillingness to freeze the current front line or engage in any meaningful peace negotiations to end the war in Ukraine.”
Putin said Russia did not want to “freeze” the war along the existing front line and would only agree to negotiations containing “specific substance.”
ISW assessed that this likely means Moscow continues to insist on negotiations conducted exclusively on Russian terms.
The remarks therefore reinforce indications that Russia remains unwilling to participate in negotiations that do not satisfy the Kremlin’s demands, the institute concluded.