Russia cites fake attack on Putin Residence to push old ultimatums – ISW

Analysts reviewed statements by Moscow officials regarding the alleged “attack” on Valdai. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the Kremlin would “harden” its negotiating position after the supposed “strike.” Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, in an interview with state propagandists, reiterated Russia’s initial war demands for ending the war in Ukraine: neutrality, demilitarization (a drastic reduction in the size of Ukraine’s armed forces) and “denazification” (replacing the current Ukrainian government with a pro-Russian puppet administration). Lavrov also repeated the ultimatum demanding recognition of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhya and Kherson oblasts, as well as Crimea, as part of Russia.

The Institute for the Study of War said those demands contradict the most recently publicly available version of the 20-point peace plan. The institute assessed that the Kremlin seeks to use the imagined Ukrainian “strike” on Putin’s residence to justify rejecting any peace proposals.

Lavrov also said that ultimatums Russia presented to the United States and Europe in December 2021 could serve as a “starting point” for peace talks. Those demands would effectively dismantle NATO, ISW wrote. Such statements indicate that Russia’s war aims are not limited to Ukraine and that a peace deal that does not account for Russia’s demands toward NATO would not satisfy the aggressor state, the report said.

Overall, ISW emphasized that analysts found no footage or other evidence to support Kremlin claims of a Ukrainian “attack” on Putin’s residence in Novgorod Oblast. Residents of Valdai also reported hearing no explosions or air defense activity overnight on Dec. 29.

ISW noted instead that Valdai is about 210 kilometers (130 miles) from the border with Smolensk Oblast and about 435 kilometers (270 miles) from the border with Bryansk Oblast where military targets could have been struck by Ukrainian forces on Dec. 29.

The Kremlin has also refused to provide evidence of the alleged “attack” on Putin’s residence and appears to be trying to reconcile inconsistencies in earlier statements about the supposed strike overnight on Dec. 29, including discrepancies over the number of drones Ukraine allegedly launched.

On Dec. 29, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov accused Ukraine of attacking Putin’s Valdai residence with 91 drones and threatened a “retaliatory strike.”

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called the statements “another Russian lie” and warned that Russia may be preparing strikes on Kyiv. He urged allies, including the United States and European partners, to pressure Moscow to genuinely seek an end to the war.