Russia prioritizes Ukraine 'war goals' over Iranian regime support - ISW

In its assessment, the ISW noted that Moscow’s response has been characterized by "boilerplate" rhetoric.

On March 1, Vladimir Putin expressed his condolences to Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, describing the death of Khamenei and his family as a "cynical" murder and a violation of international law. Notably, however, Putin did not directly mention the United States or Israel in his formal statement.

The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs was more explicit, criticizing the U.S. and Israel for "hunting" Iranian leaders. The ministry reiterated calls for a cessation of hostilities and a return to "diplomatic dialogue," while expressing concern over civilian casualties in the Gulf and potential disruptions to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov held several high-level phone calls on March 1, speaking with his counterparts from the UAE, Qatar, and China. Lavrov and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi proposed a coordinated international response through the UN Security Council and the IAEA to "stabilize" the situation. Other Russian officials, including UN Representative Vasily Nebenzya, issued similar calls for restraint.

Strategic limitations

The ISW concluded that these standardized responses highlight the inherent asymmetry in the Russia-Iran relationship. The Kremlin’s ability to intervene is severely limited by its own ongoing war efforts in Ukraine. Furthermore, Moscow likely aims to secure future concessions from the United States regarding the so-called "Ukrainian conflict" and is unwilling to jeopardize its primary strategic goals for the sake of the Iranian regime.

Major escalation in the Middle East

Since Feb. 28, 2026, the United States and Israel have conducted coordinated strikes against Iran—operations codenamed Epic Fury and Lion's Roar. These attacks resulted in the deaths of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, members of his family, and several key military and political leaders.

In retaliation, Iran has launched ballistic missile and drone attacks targeting Israel and U.S. regional allies, including Qatar, the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan, with reports of strikes on U.S. military facilities in those countries.