ISW warns territorial concessions may not secure peace for Ukraine

According to the Washington-based think tank, the sequence of agreements Russia is reportedly pushing — and that U.S. officials have discussed in media reports — could result in Ukraine surrendering key territory without securing reliable protections against future Russian aggression.

ISW analysts said the Kremlin is consistently trying to convince the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump that territory is “the only meaningful issue” left to resolve in peace negotiations. In particular, Russia continues to press claims over the remainder of Donetsk Oblast and parts of southern Ukraine.

At the same time, Moscow is portraying Ukraine as the “intransigent party” for refusing to withdraw from strategically important areas that Russian forces have failed to capture by force.

ISW noted that Ukraine has repeatedly signaled its willingness to consider withdrawing troops from the remaining parts of Donetsk Oblast — without recognizing Russian sovereignty — in exchange for substantial Western security guarantees. The think tank described that position as a significant concession by Kyiv.

The Kremlin’s public focus on territorial questions appears aimed in part at diverting attention from its own rejection of binding Western security guarantees for Ukraine, ISW said.

Analysts stressed that credible security guarantees are essential to any durable peace agreement.

On Feb. 6, Reuters reported that Ukraine and the United States were discussing a possible peace deal with Russia that could be concluded as early as March 2026. The timeline, however, could slip, as the sides have yet to agree on key issues, including territorial questions.

Trump said on Feb. 6 that active and “very good” negotiations were underway to end the war in Ukraine and suggested that concrete results could emerge soon.

On Feb. 9, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said draft documents outlining security guarantees for Ukraine were already prepared.

In an interview with The Atlantic, Zelenskyy expressed doubts that a peace plan favorable to Ukraine and unfavorable to Russia could ultimately be implemented.