ISW debunks Putin's unrealistic deadline to capture Donetsk Oblast by late 2026

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated on June 29 that since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, Moscow has set deadlines to capture the Donbas 15 times, failing every single one.

Now, the Kremlin has tasked its forces with capturing Donetsk Oblast by Dec. 31, 2026. The ISW considers this deadline, like the earlier ones, entirely unrealistic.

In June 2026, Russian forces advanced by an average of 3.79 square kilometers per day — significantly less than in August 2025, when they advanced at a rate of 16.65 square kilometers per day.

Russian forces still need to capture approximately 5,305 square kilometers of Donetsk Oblast territory, the ISW calculated. Analysts call it highly unlikely that they will achieve this by the end of the year given the current slow pace of their offensive.

The Kremlin's unrealistic deadlines encourage Russian field troops to submit "beautiful reports" to their higher command, employ "flag-planting" tactics in territories they do not control, and increasingly use AI-manipulated videos to demonstrate "advances" where they hold no positions. The aggressor country's troops also continue to expend significant resources and manpower in attempts to achieve these impossible goals.

The ISW suggested that Russian dictator Vladimir Putin has a false understanding of his army's successes and capabilities, given the Russian military leadership's tendency to distort the frontline situation and provide inaccurate assessments.

Zelenskyy's comments regarding Donbas capture deadlines were likely a response to Putin's June 28 claims of a "rapid offensive" across the entire front line and an "inevitable victory" in Ukraine, the ISW concluded.

ISW earlier wrote that Russian troops failed the Kremlin's objective to capture Kostyantynivka in Donetsk Oblast by May 2026, though they have made tactical gains there. The city remains one of Russia's main targets in its spring-summer offensive.