“I think deep down he understands he can’t achieve victory. For him, this is a hopeless fight in the long term. It won’t happen,” Kellogg said.
He also supported the idea of shooting down Russian aircraft or drones if they violate NATO airspace.
“From a military standpoint, sometimes you increase what’s called the level of risk. A good example: in 2015, a Russian fighter jet violated Turkish airspace. What did the Turks do? They shot it down. That gets your attention very quickly, doesn’t it? That’s what I mean by raising the risk level. I know it’s dangerous, I understand that. But sometimes you have to ask: where are you heading?” Kellogg said.
He added that Moscow has already been warned of a decisive response if its aircraft cross NATO airspace.
Commenting on the prospect of a potential meeting between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, U.S. President Donald Trump, and Putin, Kellogg said the precondition for such talks is increasing the cost of war for Russia.
He noted that Ukraine is already moving in that direction by striking oil refineries and reducing Russia’s oil output by about 20%. Efforts are also underway to curb global purchases of Russian oil through secondary sanctions, though some European countries continue imports.
“Now it all depends on Putin and how much pain he’s willing to accept,” Kellogg said, adding that Russia has been forced to “bring tanks out of museums” to sustain the war.
Kellogg also said restoring relations with Belarus is primarily about “ensuring channels of communication” with Putin. He explained that Washington is focused on Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko because he “talks a lot with Putin.” On Sept. 25, Lukashenko announced he would meet Putin to discuss joint issues and “convey information from the United States.”