U.S. intelligence cutoff leaves Ukraine vulnerable to Russian airstrikes - ISW

ISW experts highlighted that without U.S. intelligence, Ukraine will have fewer opportunities to strike Russian air defense systems. This will allow Russian aviation to operate more aggressively, launching guided bombs and missiles from shorter distances.

The report emphasized that Ukraine’s previous strikes on Russian military targets — ammunition depots in Toropets (Tver Oblast) and the Tikhoretsk arsenal (Krasnodar Krai) — have weakened Russia’s military capabilities and reduced its supply of missiles and shells.

"Russian forces have relied on their superiority in artillery and airstrikes to achieve tactical objectives, leveling settlements before deploying infantry to attack," the ISW report states.

Analysts also warned that cutting off all intelligence sharing will allow Russia to intensify drone and missile strikes on Ukraine’s rear, endangering both millions of civilians and Ukraine’s growing defense industry. Previously, U.S. intelligence played a crucial role in Ukraine’s early warning system against Russian missile and drone strikes, allowing authorities and civilians to prepare for incoming attacks.

The cessation of intelligence sharing, combined with the halt of U.S. Patriot missile deliveries — on which Ukraine heavily relies for protection against Russian ballistic missiles — will have severe consequences for Ukraine’s security, ISW warned.

Previously, Russian drones and missiles inflicted heavy damage on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and defense industry. With the suspension of U.S. military aid and intelligence support, these attacks are expected to intensify, slowing Ukraine’s progress in developing its own defense industry.

A self-sufficient Ukrainian defense industry could have ensured the country’s ability to sustain its military efforts long-term, even in the event of reduced foreign aid. Strengthening Ukraine’s own defense capabilities is in America’s national security interests, ISW analysts noted.

ISW findings as of March 5:

• The suspension of intelligence sharing is one of the Kremlin’s demands for a potential "peace deal."
• This decision weakens Ukraine’s ability to protect military and civilian targets.
• Increased Russian drone and missile attacks could impact millions of Ukrainian civilians and the country’s defense industry.
• The Trump administration’s policy pressures Ukraine, weakening its position in negotiations with the Kremlin.
• The Kremlin is using the U.S. aid suspension to gain battlefield advantages.
• Russian officials continue to shift blame for the lack of negotiations onto Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and are now demanding that the U.S. recognize Russia’s illegal annexation of Ukrainian territories.

Despite mounting pressure, Ukrainian forces have advanced near Toretsk and Pokrovsk.

According to ISW, from February 2022 to mid-December 2024, more than 50,000 Russian soldiers deserted and remain in hiding.